IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kue/dpaper/e-10-015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Export of Deindustrialization and Anti-Balassa-Samuelson Effect: The Consequences of Productivity Growth Differential

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroaki Sasaki

Abstract

This paper focuses on productivity growth differentials between manufacturing and services, deindustrialization, and changes in the real exchange rate. Using a Ricardian trade model with a continuum of goods that introduces nontraded services, the paper investigates these interrelationships. The main results are as follows: (i) if deindustrialization proceeds in both home and foreign countries, then the ratio of home manufacturing employment share to foreign manufacturing employment share and the real exchange rate move in the same direction; (ii) even if the productivity growth di erential in the home country is greater than that in the foreign county, the extent of deindustrialization in the home country is not necessarily larger than that in the foreing country. On the contrary, it is possible that the foreign deindustrialization exceeds the home deindustrialization; and (iii) even if the productivity growth di erential in the home country is greater than that in the foreign county, the real exchange rate of the home country can depreciate contrary to the expectaion of the Balassa-Samuelson effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroaki Sasaki, 2011. "Export of Deindustrialization and Anti-Balassa-Samuelson Effect: The Consequences of Productivity Growth Differential," Discussion papers e-10-015, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-10-015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp/projectcenter/Paper/e-10-015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oulton, Nicholas, 2001. "Must the Growth Rate Decline? Baumol's Unbalanced Growth Revisited," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 605-627, October.
    2. Spilimbergo, Antonio, 1998. "Deindustrialization and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 450-460, August.
    3. Bonatti, Luigi & Felice, Giulia, 2008. "Endogenous growth and changing sectoral composition in advanced economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 109-131, June.
    4. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    6. Golub, Stephen S & Hsieh, Chang-Tai, 2000. "Classical Ricardian Theory of Comparative Advantage Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 221-234, May.
    7. Fixler, Dennis J. & Siegel, Donald, 1999. "Outsourcing and productivity growth in services," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 177-194, June.
    8. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 8, pages 211-248, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Victor R. Fuchs, 1968. "The Service Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fuch68-1, March.
    10. Falvey, Rodney E & Gemmell, Norman, 1996. "Are Services Income-Elastic? Some New Evidence," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 42(3), pages 257-269, September.
    11. Pugno, Maurizio, 2006. "The service paradox and endogenous economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 99-115, January.
    12. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    13. Stephen S. Golub & Chang‐Tai Hsieh, 2000. "Classical Ricardian Theory of Comparative Advantage Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 221-234, May.
    14. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    15. Stephen S. Golub, 1994. "Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rates, and Sectoral Trade Balances of Major Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 286-313, June.
    16. Mr. Ramana Ramaswamy & Mr. Bob Rowthorn, 1997. "Deindustrialization: Causes and Implications," IMF Working Papers 1997/042, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jaewoo Lee & Man‐Keung Tang, 2007. "Does Productivity Growth Appreciate the Real Exchange Rate?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 164-187, February.
    18. Munehisa Kasuya & Toshihiro Okada, 2007. "The Effects of Technology Changes on Sectoral Trade Patterns," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 112-125, February.
    19. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-1238, December.
    20. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2007. "The rise of service employment and its impact on aggregate productivity growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 438-459, December.
    21. Claudio De Vincenti, 2007. "‘Baumol'S Disease’, Production Externalities And Productivity Effects Of Intersectoral Transfers," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 396-412, July.
    22. Mr. Stephen S. Golub, 1994. "Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rates, and G-7 Sectoral Trade Balances," IMF Working Papers 1994/005, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2007. "The rise of service employment and its impact on aggregate productivity growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 438-459, December.
    2. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2020. "Is growth declining in the service economy?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 26-38.
    3. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2012. "Endogenous phase switch in Baumol's service paradox model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 25-35.
    4. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-692, September.
    5. Munehisa Kasuya & Toshihiro Okada, 2003. "The Effects of Technology Changes on the Sectoral Trade Patterns and the Import Penetration Ratio," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    6. Hartwig, Jochen, 2012. "Testing the growth effects of structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 11-24.
    7. Jochen Hartwig, 2008. "Has Health Capital Formation Cured 'Baumol's Disease'? - Panel Granger Causality Evidence for OECD Countries," KOF Working papers 08-206, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    8. Edwards, Lawrence & Golub, Stephen S., 2004. "South Africa's International Cost Competitiveness and Exports in Manufacturing," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1323-1339, August.
    9. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 237-247.
    10. Sheng, Yu & Xu, Xinpeng, 2011. "Real exchange rate, productivity and labor market frictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 587-603, April.
    11. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2010. "Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 924-936, November.
    12. Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Vollmer, Sebastian & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2008. "Does comparative advantage make countries competitive? A comparison of China and Mexico," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 74, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    13. Mitra Thakur, Gogol, 2016. "Technology Shocks, the Service Sector and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 73364, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Aug 2016.
    14. Oladi, Reza & Beladi, Hamid, 2010. "On technical progress and the boundary of non-traded goods," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 204-209, November.
    15. Jianghuai Zheng & Lili Zhang & Yu Wang, 2011. "The Underdevelopment of Service Industry in China: An Empirical Study of Cities in Yangtze River Delta," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 6(3), pages 413-446, September.
    16. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim, 2007. "Investigation on the Determinants of Turkish Export-Boom in 2000s," MPRA Paper 5493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Martin Berka & Daan Steenkamp, 2018. "Deviations in real exchange rate levels in the OECD countries and their structural determinants," Working Papers 4, New Zealand Centre of Macroeconomics.
    18. Matthias Figo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Strukturwandel und regionales Wachstum - wissensintensive Unternehmensdienste als Wachstumsmotor?," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 145, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    19. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    20. Özler, Sule & Taymaz, Erol & YIlmaz, Kamil, 2009. "History Matters for the Export Decision: Plant-Level Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 479-488, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity growth differentials; Deindustrialization; Real exchange rate; Shift in specialization patterns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-10-015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Graduate School of Economics Project Center (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fekyojp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.