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A Dynamic Semiparametric Proportional Hazard Model

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Author Info
Frank Gerhard (Barclays Capital, London)
Nikolaus Hautsch (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

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Abstract

This paper proposes a dynamic proportional hazard (PH) model with non-specified baseline hazard for the modelling of autoregressive duration processes. A categorization of the durations allows us to reformulate the PH model as an ordered response model based on extreme value distributed errors. In order to capture persistent serial dependence in the duration process, we extend the model by an observation driven ARMA dynamic based on generalized errors. We illustrate the maximum likelihood estimation of both the model parameters and discrete points of the underlying unspecified baseline survivor function. The dynamic properties of the model as well as an assessment of the estimation quality is investigated in a Monte Carlo study. It is illustrated that the model is a useful approach to estimate conditional failure probabilities based on (persistent) serial dependent duration data which might be subject to censoring structures. In an empirical study based on financial transaction data we present an application of the model to estimate conditional asset price change probabilities. Evaluating the forecasting properties of the model, it is shown that the proposed approach is a promising competitor to well-established ACD type models.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit in its series FRU Working Papers with number 2006/05.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiefr:200605

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Related research
Keywords: autoregressive duration models; dynamic ordered response models; generalized residuals; censoring;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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