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Did Globalization Lead to Segmentation? Identifying Cross-Country Growth Regimes in the Long-Run

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Author Info
Gianfranco Di Vaio (University of Perugia)
Kerstin Enflo (Department of Economic History, Lund Universitet)

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Abstract

Economic historians have stressed that income convergence was a key feature of the 'OECD-club' and that globalization was among the accelerating forces of this process in the long-run. This view has however been challenged, since it suffers from an ad hoc selection of countries. In the paper, a mixture model is applied to a sample of 64 countries to endogenously analyze the cross-country growth behavior over the period 1870-2003. Results show that growth patterns were segmented in two worldwide regimes, the fi?rst one being characterized by convergence, and the other one denoted by divergence. Interestingly, when three historical epochs are analyzed separately (1870-1913; 1913-1950; and 1950-2003), the dynamics which come to dominate over the whole period emerged only during the post-1950 years. In contrast, the First Global Wave was marked by global divergence. Therefore, history does not provide unambiguous evidence about globalization and convergence.

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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 09-08.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0908

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Related research
Keywords: globalization; economic growth; income convergence; multiple regimes; mixture models;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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