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Linking Simple Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive Model: Some Illustrative Examples

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Author Info
Niels Framroze Møller (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

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Abstract

This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its structure and assumptions can be translated into a CVAR. We also see how the CVAR allows for explicit hypotheses about transitory dynamics, that could be relevant for assessing price rigidity, and hence, "the length of the short run" - a controversial issue in traditional macroeconomics. Moreover, it is demonstrated how other controversial hypotheses such as Rational Expectations can be formulated directly as restrictions on the CVAR-parameters. A simple example of a "Neoclassical synthetic" AS-AD model is also formulated. Finally, the partial- general equilibrium distinction is related to the CVAR as well. Further fundamental extensions and advances to more sophisticated theory models, such as those related to dynamics and expectations (in the structural relations) are left for future papers.

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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 06-15.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0615

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Related research
Keywords: cointegrated VAR; static theory models; AS-AD; price rigidities; rational expectations; general equilibrium;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Katarina Juselius & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "International Parity Relationships between Germany and the United States: A Joint Modelling Approach," Discussion Papers 00-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Solow, Robert M, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics We Should All Believe In?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 230-32, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Søren Johansen, 2005. "Interpretation of Cointegrating Coefficients in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(1), pages 93-104, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Johansen, Soren & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 1999. "Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 73-91, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blanchard, Olivier, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 244-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kongsted, Hans Christian, 2005. "Testing the nominal-to-real transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 205-225, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Katarina Juselius & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," Discussion Papers 00-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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