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On US politics and IMF Lending

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Author Info
Thomas Barnebeck Andersen (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)
Thomas Harr (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)
Finn Tarp (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

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Abstract

The political factors, which shape IMF lending to LDCs, have attracted much attention. The same goes for the role and influence of the US. However, formal modelling is scant. In this paper, we assume that the US is principal within the IMF and seeks to maximize its impact on the policy stance of debtor countries. We derive the optimal loan allocation mechanism, and test the hypothesis that the probability of an IMF loan is increasing in the amount of political concessions countries make. A political concession is defined as the distance between a country’s bliss point and its actual policy stance measured relative to the US. We propose a bliss-point proxy and test our hypothesis in a sample of 68 countries during the period 1986-94. There is support for our hypothesis in the data. Finally, we show that omitting bliss points may lead to endogeneity bias in empirical work.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 04-11.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0411

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Related research
Keywords: IMF lending; political factors;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bird, Graham, 1996. "Borrowing from the IMF: The policy implications of recent empirical research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(11), pages 1753-1760, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Roger B. Myerson, 1978. "Optimal Auction Design," Discussion Papers 362, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002. "IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," NBER Working Papers 8951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Gould, Erica R., 2003. "Money Talks: Supplementary Financiers and International Monetary Fund Conditionality," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(03), pages 551-586, August. [Downloadable!]
  5. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Robert, Jacques, 1996. "Optimal auction with financially constrained buyers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 181-186, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 1986. "Testing non-nested hypotheses," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 44, pages 2583-2637 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Axel Dreher & Peter Nunnenkamp & Rainer Thiele, 2006. "Does US Aid Buy UN General Assembly Votes? A Disaggregated Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1275, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Thomas Andersen & Henrik Hansen & Thomas Markussen, 2006. "US politics and World Bank IDA-lending," The Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 772-794, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Tarp, Finn, 2006. "Aid and Development," MPRA Paper 13171, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Do IMF and World Bank Influence Voting in the UN General Assembly?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2005. "Should It Be Curtains for Some of the IMF’s Lending Windows?," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
  6. Axel Dreher & Nathan Jensen, 2009. "Country or Leader? Political Change and UN General Assembly Voting," KOF Working papers 09-217, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  7. Axel Dreher & Bernhard Boockmann, 2007. "Do Human Rights Offenders Oppose Human Rights Resolutions in the United Nations?," KOF Working papers 07-163, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kilby, Christopher, . "The Political Economy of Conditionality: An Empirical Analysis of World Bank Enforcement," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 92, Vassar College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Anwar, Mumtaz, 2006. "The Political Economy Of International Financial Institutions’ Lending To Pakistan," MPRA Paper 5601, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
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