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The Declining Price Effect in Sequential Auctions: What Theory Does Not Predict

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Author Info
Olivier Chanel (GREQAM, Marseilles)
Stéphanie Vincent (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

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Abstract

This paper studies different explanations given for the "price decline anomaly" in sequential auctions, a phenomenon also known as the "afternoon effect". It surveys the dedicated theoretical models and then explores the influence of the institutional or market characteristics (of the sale) on the price trend. Next , it presents different methods used for measuring price trends and analytically identifies the differences between them. Finally, data from wine auctions are used to show that different methods may lead to opposite trends from the same data and that the number of identical objects being sold influences the price trend.

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File URL: http://www.econ.ku.dk/CIE/Discussion%20Papers/1999/Pdf%20files/9913.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Industrial Economics in its series CIE Discussion Papers with number 1999-13.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Sep 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kud:kuieci:1999-13

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Related research
Keywords: multiple unit auctions price decline index Numbers bootstrap simulations

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Auctions

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Diewert, W Erwin, 1998. "Index Number Issues in the Consumer Price Index," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 47-58, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. McAfee, R. Preston & McMillan, John, 1987. "Auctions with a stochastic number of bidders," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-19, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bernhardt, Dan & Scoones, David, 1994. "A Note on Sequential Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 653-57, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. McAfee R. Preston & Vincent Daniel, 1993. "The Declining Price Anomaly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 191-212, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stéphanie Vincent, 1998. "Sequential auctions with heterogeneous bidders," CIE Discussion Papers 1998-19, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Industrial Economics.
  6. Ashenfelter, Orley & Genesove, David, 1992. "Testing for Price Anomalies in Real-Estate Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 501-05, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Black, Jane & De Meza, David, 1992. "Systematic Price Differences between Successive Auctions Are No Anomaly," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(4), pages 607-28, Winter.
  8. Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "Index Numbers," UBC Departmental Archives diewert-07-01-03-08-17-23, UBC Department of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ashenfelter, Orley, 1989. "How Auctions Work for Wine and Art," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 23-36, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Alan Beggs & Kathryn Graddy, 1997. "Declining Values and the Afternoon Effect: Evidence from Art Auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 28(3), pages 544-565, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Gale Ian L. & Hausch Donald B., 1994. "Bottom-Fishing and Declining Prices in Sequential Auctions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 318-331, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Engelbrecht-Wiggans, Richard, 1994. "Sequential auctions of stochastically equivalent objects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 87-90. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Lusht, Kenneth M, 1994. "Order and Price in a Sequential Auction," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 259-66, May.
  14. Milgrom, Paul R & Weber, Robert J, 1982. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1089-1122, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Fl. Menezes & P.K.Monteiro, 1994. "Sequential Asymmetric Auctions With Endogenous Participation," Microeconomics 9402001, EconWPA, revised 09 Jun 1994. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Grigorieva Elena & Herings P. Jean-Jacques & Müller Rudolf & Vermeulen Dries, 2006. "Inefficiency of equilibria in query auctions with continuous valuations," Research Memoranda 017, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
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