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Assessing the Welfare Cost of a Fixed Exchange-Rate Policy

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  • Niels Arne Dam

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Jesper Gregers Linaa

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

This paper performs a welfare analysis based on the hypothetical scenario that Denmark gave up its peg and started conducting monetary policy according to a Taylor rule. For this we rely on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy that was estimated on Danish data using Bayesian methods. We obtain the result that the gain in welfare is equivalent to a permanent increase of around 0.8 pct in the level of consumption. Examining a range of alternative scenarios does not change this conclusion, unless we assume a degree of policy errors under the Taylor rule that is substantially larger than those estimated by other studies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series EPRU Working Paper Series with number 05-04.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:05-04

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Keywords: open economy; monetary policy; business cycles; welfare;

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References

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  1. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  3. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Currency Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Henry Kim, 1999. "Spurious Welfare Reversals in International Business Cycle Models," Virginia Economics Online Papers 319, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
  5. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  7. Bergin, Paul R., 2006. "How well can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics explain the exchange rate and current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 675-701, August.
  8. Steve Ambler & Ali Dib & Nooman Rebei, 2004. "Optimal Taylor Rules in an Estimated Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 04-36, Bank of Canada.
  9. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Working Paper 2007-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Robert Kollmann, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: the role of money and nominal rigidities," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7632, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  11. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
  12. Christopher A. Sims & Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Kim, 2004. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solution of Discrete Time Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 411, Econometric Society.
  13. Robert Kollmann, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects of welfare and business cycles," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7628, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  14. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2004. "Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the US Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 4654, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Niels Arne Dam & Jesper Gregers Linaa, 2005. "What Drives Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate?," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-02, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  16. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-34, May.
  17. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.

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