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ECB Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Euro: Institutional Framework, News and Intervention

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Rasmus Fatum
Michael M. Hutchison

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Abstract

Using a unique intervention "news" data set, this paper investigates the impact of ECB intervention and intervention-related "news" (newswire reports) on the euro exchange rate. A time-series study of "news" generated by ECB officials and market participants regarding intervention and the value of the euro as well as an event study of firm reports of ECB intervention is conducted. Both studies find significant short-run effects on the euro value, while only "negative" statements (official statements denying past intervention or ruling out future intervention) appear to have persistent effects.

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Paper provided by Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series EPRU Working Paper Series with number 02-10.

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Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:02-10

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Baillie, Richard T. & Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Intervention from an information perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 407-421, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1986. "News from the U.S. and Japan: which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Research Working Paper 86-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  4. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  5. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-47, November.
  7. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  10. Gabriele Galati & Corrinne Ho, 2003. "Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(3), pages 371-398, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Owen F. Humpage & Javiera Ragnartz, 2005. "Swedish intervention and the Krona float, 1993–2002," Working Paper 0514, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stefan Reitz, 2005. "Central Bank Intervention and Heterogeneous Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence from the Daily DEM/US-Dollar Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 33-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. P. Siklos, M. Bohl, 2006. "Policy Words and Policy Deeds: The ECB and the Euro," Working Papers eg0050, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gabriele Galati & Patrick Higgins & Owen F. Humpage & William Melick, 2006. "Option prices, exchange market intervention, and the higher moment expectations channel: a user’s guide," Working Paper 0618, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Humpage, Owen F. & Ragnartz, Javiera, 2006. "Swedish Intervention and the Krona Float, 1993-2002," Working Paper Series 192, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  6. Michel Beine & Oscar Bernal & Jean-Yves Gnabo & Christelle Lecourt, 2007. "Intervention Policy of the BoJ: A Unified Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2003. "The Effectiveness of the Interventions of the Swiss National Bank — An Event-Study Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1160, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jansen, David-Jan & de Haan, Jakob, 2003. "Statements of ECB Officials and their Effect on the Level and Volatility of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Identifying the effects of U.S. intervention on the levels of exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Péter Gábriel & Klára Pintér, 2006. "The effect of the MNB’s communication on financial markets," MNB Working Papers 2006/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
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