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Monetary Union, Entry Conditions and Economic Reform

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  • F. Gulcin Ozkan
  • Anne Sibert
  • Alan Sutherland

Abstract

This paper models the behaviour of a potential entrant into a monetary union where there is an inflation entry condition. In addition to making a monetary policy decision during a qualifying period, the potential entrant must make a decision about structural reform. The paper shows that the entry condition can have two undesirable effects. First, it can lead to multiple equilibria because inflationary expectations acquire a self-fulfilling property. Second, the entry condition can lead to a reduction in the amount of reform. This is because the entry condition reduces inflationary expectations and thus reduces the incentive to reform.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Gulcin Ozkan & Anne Sibert & Alan Sutherland, "undated". "Monetary Union, Entry Conditions and Economic Reform," EPRU Working Paper Series 00-03, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:00-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Winkler, B, 1997. "Of Sticks and Carrots. Incentives and the Maastricht Road to EMU," Economics Working Papers eco97/02, European University Institute.
    2. W.H. Buiter, 1995. "Macroeconomic Policy During a Transition to Monetary Union," CEP Discussion Papers dp0261, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Ozkan, F. Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1998. "A currency crisis model with an optimising policymaker," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 339-364, April.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Anne Sibert, 1996. "Monetary Integration and Economic Convergence," Archive Working Papers 030, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    6. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    7. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196.
    8. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Monetary union and convergence economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1091-1101, April.
    9. Artis, Michael, 1996. "Alternative Transitions to EMU," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1005-1015, July.
    10. De Grauwe, Paul, 1995. "Alternative strategies towards monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 483-491, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. & Jensen, Henrik, 2003. "Structural convergence under reversible and irreversible monetary unification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 417-439, June.
    2. Cacciatore, Matteo & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Market deregulation and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 120-137.
    3. Bilin Neyapti & Secil Ozgur, 2007. "The Effects Of Fiscal And Monetary Discipline On Budgetary Outcomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(2), pages 146-155, April.
    4. Jürgen Von Hagen, 1999. "Macroeconomic Consequences of the EMU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 359-374, December.
    5. Carsten Hefeker, 2010. "Fiscal reform and monetary union in West Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 86-102.
    6. Sibert, Anne & Sutherland, Alan, 2000. "Monetary union and labor market reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 421-435, August.
    7. F. Gulcin Ozkan & Anne Sibert & Alan Sutherland, 2004. "Monetary union and the Maastricht inflation criterion: The accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 635-652, December.
    8. Nadine Leiner-Killinger & Víctor López Pérez & Roger Stiegert & Giovanni Vitale, 2007. "Structural reforms in EMU and the role of monetary policy – a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 66, European Central Bank.
    9. Berthold Herrendorf & Manfred J.M. Neumann, 2003. "The Political Economy of Inflation, Labour Market Distortions and Central Bank Independence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 43-64, January.
    10. Carsten Hefeker, 2000. "Structural Reforms and the Enlargement of Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 270, CESifo.
    11. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Svend E Hougaard Jensen & Christian Richter, 2004. "Northern and Eastern Enlargement of EMU: Do Structural Reforms Matter?," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2004/3 edited by Morten Balling, May.
    12. Belke, Ansgar H. & Herz, Bernhard & Vogel, Lukas, 2005. "Structural Reforms and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 1798, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Reforms: A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 317-342, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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