Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Shaken, not stirred: the impact of disasters on international trade

Contents:

Author Info

  • Martin Gassebner

    () (Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), Switzerland)

  • Alexander Keck

    () (World Trade Organization (WTO). Economic Research and Statistics Division)

  • Robert Teh

    () (World Trade Organization (WTO). Economic Research and Statistics Division)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of major disasters on trade flows using a gravity model(170 countries, 1962-2004). As a conservative estimate, an additional disaster reduces imports on average by 0,2% and exports by 0.1%. Despite the apparent persistence of bilateral trade volumes, the impact of catastrophes depends on the democracy level and size of the affected country. In autocracies, exports and imports are significantly reduced: had Togo been struck by a major disaster in 2000, it would have lost 6.8% of its imports and 8.2% of its exports. Democratic countries' exports suffer modest decreases, while imports are hardly affected

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.kof.ethz.ch/publications/science/pdf/wp_139.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 06-139.

as in new window
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:06-139

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Weinbergstrasse 35, CH-8092 Zürich
Phone: +41 44 632 41 28
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Email:
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: International trade; disasters; gravity model; governance bounds analysis.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Tobias N. Rasmussen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 04/224, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. " Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
  3. Axel Dreher & Lars-H.R. Siemers, 2003. "The Intriguing Nexus Between Corruption and Capital Account Restrictions," Development and Comp Systems 0306004, EconWPA, revised 07 Apr 2004.
  4. Freund, Caroline L. & Weinhold, Diana, 2004. "The effect of the Internet on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 171-189, January.
  5. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
  7. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December.
  8. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1998. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," NBER Working Papers 6529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Auffret, Philippe, 2003. "High consumption volatility : the impact of natural disasters?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2962, The World Bank.
  10. Fink, Carsten & Mattoo, Aaditya & Neagu, Ileana Cristina, 2005. "Assessing the impact of communication costs on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 428-445, December.
  11. Jon Haveman & David Hummels, 2004. "Alternative hypotheses and the volume of trade: the gravity equation and the extent of specialization," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 199-218, February.
  12. Danila Serra, 2006. "Empirical determinants of corruption: A sensitivity analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 225-256, January.
  13. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
  14. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
  15. Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Natural disaster situations and growth: A macroeconomic model for sudden disaster impacts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(9), pages 1417-1434, September.
  16. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2003. "A generalized design for bilateral trade flow models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 391-397, September.
  17. Treisman, Daniel, 2000. "The causes of corruption: a cross-national study," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 399-457, June.
  18. Michael Keen & Paul K. Freeman & Muthukumara Mani, 2003. "Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters: Challenges and Options," IMF Working Papers 03/197, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Dreher, Axel & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Öhler, Hannes & Weisser, Johannes, 2009. "Acting Autonomously or Mimicking the State and Peers? A Panel Tobit Analysis of Financial Dependence and Aid Allocation by Swiss NGOs," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Frankfurt a.M. 2009 8, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  2. Paul Raschky, 2007. "Estimating the effects of risk transfer mechanisms against floods in Europe and U.S.A.: A dynamic panel approach," Working Papers 2007-05, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  3. Diego Hernandez & Alexandra Rudolph, 2011. "Modern Day Slavery: What Drives Human Trafficking in Europe?," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 97, Courant Research Centre PEG, revised 23 Nov 2011.
  4. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Jasmin Gröschl, 2011. "Natural Disasters and the Effect of Trade on Income: A New Panel IV Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3541, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Eliza Lis & Christiane Nickel, 2010. "The impact of extreme weather events on budget balances," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 378-399, August.
  6. Ilan Noy, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Economic Policy for the Pacific Rim," Working Papers 201201, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  7. Bala Ramasamy & Matthew C.H. Yeung, 2012. "Ethical distance and difference in Bilateral trade," Working Papers 11012, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
  8. Bjornskov, Christian & Dreher, Axel & Fischer, Justina AV, 2008. "Formal Institutions and Subjective Well-Being: Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence," MPRA Paper 20488, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Feb 2010.
  9. Eliza M. Lis & Christiane Nickel, 2009. "The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Budget Balances and Implications for Fiscal Policy," Working Paper Series 1055, European Central Bank.
  10. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael, 2008. "Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 582-592, December.
  11. Paul A. Raschky & Manijeh Schwindt, . "Aid, Catastrophes and the Samaritan's Dilemma," Working Papers 2008-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  12. Hernandez, Diego & Rudolph, Alexandra, 2011. "Modern Day Slavery: What Drives Human Trafficking in Europe?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 83, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:06-139

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.