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A note on expectational stability under non-zero trend inflation

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Author Info

  • Teruyoshi Kobayashi

    ()
    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

  • Ichiro Muto

    ()
    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This study examines the expectational stability of the rational expectations equilibria (REE) under alternative Taylor rules when trend inflation is non-zero. We find that when trend inflation is high, the REE is likely to be expectationally unstable. This result holds true regardless of the nature of the data (such as contemporaneous data, forecast, and lagged data) introduced in the Taylor rule. Our results suggest that a high macroeconomic volatility during the period of high trend inflation can be well explained by introducing the concept of expectational stability.

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File URL: http://www.econ.kobe-u.ac.jp/RePEc/koe/wpaper/2011/1102.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University in its series Discussion Papers with number 1102.

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Length: 21pages
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:koe:wpaper:1102

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Web page: http://www.econ.kobe-u.ac.jp
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Keywords: Adaptive learning; E-stability; Taylor rule; trend inflation;

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References

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  1. Sbordone, Argia M., 2007. "Inflation persistence: Alternative interpretations and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1311-1339, July.
  2. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2007. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy," Kiel Working Papers 1332, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Muto, Ichiro, 2011. "Monetary policy and learning from the central bank's forecast," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 52-66, January.
  5. Ascari, Guido, 2002. "Staggered Price and Trend Inflation:Some Nuisances," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 10, Royal Economic Society.
  6. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
  7. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Olivier J. Blanchard & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/03, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-26, December.
  10. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," 2009 Meeting Papers 21, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 173-201, June.
  12. West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Comment on Argia M. Sbordone "Inflation persistence: Alternative interpretations and policy implications"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1340-1343, July.
  13. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy under low trend inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2568-2583, November.
  14. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Performance of Monetary Policy with Internal Central Bank Forecasting," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/18, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
  15. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Henning Weber, 2011. "Optimal inflation and firms' productivity dynamics," Kiel Working Papers 1685, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2013. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," DEM Working Papers Series 053, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  3. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "Trend inflation, sticky prices, and expectational stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 175-187.
  4. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2014. "Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 241-256.
  5. Henning Weber, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate and Firm-Level Productivity Growth," Kiel Working Papers 1773, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio, 2012. "Transparency, Expectations Anchoring and the Inflation Target," DEM Working Papers Series 022, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  7. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Firm-specific labor, trend inflation, and equilibrium stability," Research Working Paper RWP 12-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  8. Ichiro Muto, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Learning from the Central Bank's Forecast," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

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