SEMIFAR Forecasts, with Applications to Foreign Exchange Rates
AbstractSEMIFAR models introduced in Beran (1999) provide a semiparametric modelling framework that enables the data analyst to separate deterministic and stochastic trends as well as short- and long-memory components in an observed time series. A correct distinction between these components, and in particular, the decision which of the components may be present in the data have an important impact on forecasts. in this paper, forecasts and forecast intervals for SEMIFAR models are obtained. The forecasts are based on an extrapolation of the stochastic component. In the data analystical part of the paper, the proposed method is applied to foreign exchange rates from Europe and Asia.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 99-13.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 02 Jun 1999
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2000-02-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2000-02-28 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2000-02-28 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-IFN-2000-02-28 (International Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chiu, Shean-Tsong, 1989. "Bandwidth selection for kernel estimate with correlated noise," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 347-354, September.
- Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-35, September.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994.
"A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
- Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1991.
"An Empirical Assessment of Non-linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 603-19, May.
- Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1989. "An empirical assessment of non-linearities in models of exchange rate determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 367, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990.
"Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989.
"The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
- Hall, Peter & Hart, Jeffrey D., 1990. "Nonparametric regression with long-range dependence," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 339-351, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Unit Root Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1104, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. " A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-85, June.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua & Ghosh, Sucharita & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2002.
"On robust local polynomial estimation with long-memory errors,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 227-241.
- Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua & Ghosh, Sucharita & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2000. "On robust local polynominal estimation with long-memory errors," Technical Reports 2000,35, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
- Jan Beran & Yuanhua Feng & Sucharita Gosh & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2000. "On robust local polynomial estimation with long-memory errors," CoFE Discussion Paper 00-18, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- Dominique Guegan, 2003. "A prospective study of the k-factor Gegenbauer processes with heteroscedastic errors and an application to inflation rates," Post-Print halshs-00201314, HAL.
- Ghosh, Sucharita & Draghicescu, Dana, 2002. "Predicting the distribution function for long-memory processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 283-290.
- Mohamed Chikhi & Anne Péguin-Feissolle & Michel Terraza, 2013.
"SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH Modeling of Dow Jones Return Persistence,"
Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 249-265, February.
- Mohamed Chikhi & Anne Péguin-Feissolle & Michel Terraza, 2012. "SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH Modeling of Dow Jones Return Persistence," AMSE Working Papers 1214, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
- Mohamed Chikhi & Anne Peguin-Feissolle & Michel Terraza, 2012. "SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH Modeling of Dow Jones Return Persistence," Working Papers halshs-00793203, HAL.
- Ana Pérez & Esther Ruiz, 2002.
"Modelos de memoria larga para series económicas y financieras,"
Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(3), pages 395-445, September.
- Ana Pérez & Esther Ruiz, 2001. "Modelos De Memoria Larga Para Series Económicas Y Financieras," Documentos de Trabajo de EstadÃstica y EconometrÃa ds010101, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
- Jan Beran & Yuanhua.Feng, 2001. "Iterative plug-in algorithms for SEMIFAR models - definition, convergence and asymptotic properties," CoFE Discussion Paper 01-11, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- Chun-Hung Chen & Wei-Choun Yu & Eric Zivot, 2009. "Predicting Stock Volatility Using After-Hours Information," Working Papers UWEC-2009-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Fernandez, Viviana, 2008. "The war on terror and its impact on the long-term volatility of financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-26.
- Beran, Jan & Heiler, Mark A., 2008. "A nonparametric regression cross spectrum for multivariate time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(4), pages 684-714, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ingmar Nolte) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ingmar Nolte to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.