Customer Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market: Empirical Evidence from an Internet Trading Platform
AbstractThis paper analyzes the relationship between currency price changes and their expectations. Currency price change expectations are derived with the help of different order flow measures, from the trading behavior of investors on OANDA FXTrade, which is an internet trading platform in the foreign exchange market. We investigate whether forecasts of intra-day price changes on different sampling frequencies can be improved with the information contained in the flow of our investors’ orders. Moreover, we verify several hypotheses on the trading behavior and the preference structure of our investors by investigating how past price changes affect future order flow.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 07-03.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 15 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Sandra Lechner & Ingmar Nolte, 2009. "Customer Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market: Empirical Evidence from an Internet Trading Platform," Working Papers wp09-01, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre.
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-04-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-04-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2007-04-28 (International Finance)
- NEP-MST-2007-04-28 (Market Microstructure)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard K. Lyons, 1993.
"Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market,"
NBER Working Papers
4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
- Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
- Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Martin Evans and Richard K. Lyons, 2002.
"Informational Integration and FX Trading,"
gueconwpa~02-02-11, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Ho, Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 1981.
"Optimal dealer pricing under transactions and return uncertainty,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-73, March.
- Thomas Ho & Hans Stoll, . "Optimal Dealer Pricing Under Transactions and Return Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 27-79, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7656, David K. Levine.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
- Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January.
- Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
- Hoidal Bjonnes, Geir & Rime, Dagfinn, 2003.
"Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets,"
SIFR Research Report Series
17, Institute for Financial Research.
- Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March.
- Geir Hoidal Bjonnes & Dagfinn Rime, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Paper 2003/10, Norges Bank.
- Osler, Carol L., 2005.
"Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-241, March.
- C. L. Osler, 2002. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Staff Reports 150, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
- Marc Nerlove, 1981.
"Expectations, Plans and Realizations: In Theory and Practice,"
511, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-79, September.
- Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
- Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December.
- Roll, Richard, 1984. " A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-39, September.
- Nicholas Barberis & Richard Thaler, 2002.
"A Survey of Behavioral Finance,"
NBER Working Papers
9222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Seppi, Duane J, 1997. "Liquidity Provision with Limit Orders and a Strategic Specialist," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 103-50.
- Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
- Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, June.
- Ingmar Nolte & Valeri Voev, 2007. "Panel Intensity Models with Latent Factors: An Application to the Trading Dynamics on the Foreign Exchange Market¤," CoFE Discussion Paper 07-02, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- Carol Osler & Xuhang Wang, 2012. "The Microstructure of Currency Markets," Working Papers 49, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ingmar Nolte) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ingmar Nolte to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.