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Customer Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market: Empirical Evidence from an Internet Trading Platform

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Author Info
Ingmar Nolte () (University of Konstanz)
Sandra Lechner () (University of Konstanz)

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between currency price changes and their expectations. Currency price change expectations are derived with the help of different order flow measures, from the trading behavior of investors on OANDA FXTrade, which is an internet trading platform in the foreign exchange market. We investigate whether forecasts of intra-day price changes on different sampling frequencies can be improved with the information contained in the flow of our investors’ orders. Moreover, we verify several hypotheses on the trading behavior and the preference structure of our investors by investigating how past price changes affect future order flow.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 07-03.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 15 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0703

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Postal: Fach D 147, D-78457 Konstanz
Phone: +49-7531-88-2204
Fax: +49-7531-88-4450
Web page: http://cofe.uni-konstanz.de
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Web: http://cofe.uni-konstanz.de

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Ingmar Nolte).

Related research
Keywords: Customer Dataset; Order Flow; Price Changes; Foreign Exchange Market;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Geir Hoidal Bjonnes & Dagfinn Rime, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Paper 2003/10, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x.
  4. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Seppi, Duane J, 1997. "Liquidity Provision with Limit Orders and a Strategic Specialist," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 103-50.
  12. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-79, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2002. "Informational integration and FX trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 807-831, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. C. L. Osler, 2002. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Staff Reports 150, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ingmar Nolte & Valeri Voev, 2007. "Panel Intensity Models with Latent Factors: An Application to the Trading Dynamics on the Foreign Exchange Market¤," CoFE Discussion Paper 07-02, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
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