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Return Predictability and Stock Market Crashes in a Simple Rational Expectations Model¤

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Author Info
Günter Franke () (University of Konstanz)
Erik Lüders () (Laval University, Dresdner Bank AG)

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Abstract

This paper presents a simple rational expectations model of intertemporal asset pricing. It shows that state-independent heterogeneous risk aversion of investors is likely to generate declining aggregate relative risk aversion. This leads to predictability of asset returns and high and persistent volatility. Stock market crashes may be observed if relative risk aversion differs strongly across investors. Then aggregate relative risk aversion may sharply increase given a small impairment in fundamentals so that asset prices may strongly decline. Changes in aggregate relative risk aversion may also lead to resistance and support levels as used in technical analysis. For numerical illustration we propose an analytical asset price formula.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 06-05.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0605

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Related research
Keywords: Aggregate relative risk aversion; Equilibrium asset price processes; Excess Volatility; Return predictability; Stock market crashes;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael Brennan & Ashley Wang & Yihong Xia, 2003. "Estimation and Test of a Simple Model of Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1011, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Wachter, Jessica A., 2002. "Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 63-91, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
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  6. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-51.
    Other versions:
  9. Lubos PÁstor & Veronesi Pietro, 2003. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1749-1790, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Guenter Franke & Richard C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "When are Options Overpriced? The Black-Scholes Model and Alternative Characterisations of the Pricing Kernel," Finance 9904004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Guntar Franke & Richard C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "When are Options Overpriced? The Black-Scholes Model and Alternative Characterizations of the Pricing Kernel," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-003, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Timothy C. Johnson, 2002. "Rational Momentum Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 585-608, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Timmermann, Allan G, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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