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A Trade-by-Trade Surprise Measure and Its Relation to Observed Spreadson the NYSE

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Author Info
Valeri Voev () (University of Konstanz)

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Abstract

We analyze the relationship between spreads and an indicator for information based transactions on trade-by-trade data. Classifying trades on the NYSE in six categories with respect to their volume relative to the quoted depth, we employ an ordered probit model to predict the category of a trade given the current market conditions. This approach allows us to test certain market microstructure hypothesis on the determinants of the buy-sell pressure. The difference between the predicted and the actual trade category (the surprise) is found to have explanatory power for the observed spreads beyond raw volume, volume relative to the quoted depth, and previous trading volume. The positive effect of the previous surprise on the observed spreads confirms the hypothesis that market-makers react to the increased probability of having traded with an informed trader by widening the spread.

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Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 06-03.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 14 Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0603

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  2. Easley, David, et al, 1996. " Liquidity, Information, and Infrequently Traded Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1405-36, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Lee, Charles M C & Mucklow, Belinda & Ready, Mark J, 1993. "Spreads, Depths, and the Impact of Earnings Information: An Intraday Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 345-74. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Anthony D. Hall & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2004. "A Continuous-Time Measurement of the Buy-Sell Pressure in a Limit Order Book Market," FRU Working Papers 2004/03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Christophe Bisiere & Thierry Kamionka, 2000. "Timing of Orders, Order Aggressiveness and the Order Book at the Paris Bourse," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 60, pages 04, Octobre-D. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "herd Behavior in Financial Markets - A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1992. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 319-379, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. " Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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