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The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters

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Author Info

  • Richard Deaves

    ()
    (McMaster University)

  • Erik Lüders

    ()
    (Pinehill Capital and Laval University)

  • Michael Schröder

    (Center for European Economic Research (ZEW))

Abstract

As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters become more overconfident. What’s more, more experienced forecasters have “learned to be overconfident,” and hence are more susceptible to this behavioral flaw than their less experienced peers. It is not just individuals who are affected. Markets also become more overconfident when market returns have been high.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 05-10.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 07 Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0510

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Johansson Stenman, Olof & Nordblom, Katarina, 2010. "Are Men Really More Overconfident than Women? - A Natural Field Experiment on Exam Behavior," Working Papers in Economics 461, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas & Nikiforow, Marina, 2009. "Professionals' endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 318-329, August.
  3. Lunn, Pete, 2011. "The Role of Decision-Making Biases in Ireland's Banking Crisis," Papers WP389, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  4. Beshears, John & Milkman, Katherine L., 2011. "Do sell-side stock analysts exhibit escalation of commitment?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 304-317, March.
  5. Frank Caliendo & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2007. "Overconfidence and Consumption over the Life Cycle," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0712, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  6. Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Financial professionals' overconfidence:Is it experience, function, or attitude?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-428, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  7. Sonsino, Doron & Regev, Eran, 2013. "Informational overconfidence in return prediction – More properties," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-84.
  8. Frank Caliendo & Kevin X. D. Huang, 2007. "Overconfidence in financial markets and consumption over the life cycle," Working Papers 07-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Shantanu Bagchi, 2011. "Can overconfidence explain the consumption hump?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 41-70, January.
  10. Zaiane Salma & Abaoub Ezzeddine, 2008. "Overconfidence And Trading Volume: Evidence From An Emergent Market," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(10), pages 41.

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