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The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters

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Author Info
Richard Deaves () (McMaster University)
Erik Lüders () (Pinehill Capital and Laval University)
Michael Schröder (Center for European Economic Research (ZEW))
Abstract

As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters become more overconfident. What’s more, more experienced forecasters have “learned to be overconfident,” and hence are more susceptible to this behavioral flaw than their less experienced peers. It is not just individuals who are affected. Markets also become more overconfident when market returns have been high.

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Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 05-10.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 07 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0510

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kent D. Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2000. "Covariance Risk, Mispricing, and the Cross Section of Security Returns," NBER Working Papers 7615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," CEPR Discussion Papers 3941, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hirshleifer, David & Luo, Guo Ying, 2001. "On the survival of overconfident traders in a competitive securities market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 73-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2005. "Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(2), pages 287-312, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, And Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence of Professionals and Lay Men: Individual Differences Within and Between Tasks?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-25, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  9. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
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  11. Kyle, Albert S & Wang, F Albert, 1997. " Speculation Duopoly with Agreement to Disagree: Can Overconfidence Survive the Market Test?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2073-90, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Guo Ying Luo, 2005. "An Experimental Test of the Impact of Overconfidence and Gender on Trading Activity," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-07, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2009. "Financial professionals' overconfidence: Is it experience, job, or attitude?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-428, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frank Caliendo & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2007. "Overconfidence and Consumption over the Life Cycle," Working Papers 0712, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Menkhoff, Lukas & Nikiforow, Marina, 2008. "Professionals' endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-392, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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