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Why Do Asset Prices Not Follow Random Walks? Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Günter Franke () (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz)
Erik Lüders () (Pinehill Capital and Laval University)
This paper analyzes the e¤ect of non-constant elasticity of the pricing kernel on asset return characteristics in a rational expectations model. It is shown that declining elasticity of the pricing kernel can lead to predictability of asset returns and high and persistent volatility. Also, declining elasticity helps to motivate technical analysis and to explain stock market crashes. Moreover, based on a general characterization of the pricing kernel, we propose analytical asset price processes which can be tested empirically. The numerical analysis reveals strong deviations from the geometric Brownian motion which are caused by declining elasticity of the pricing kernel.
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Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number
04-05.
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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 18 Aug 2004Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0405Contact details of provider: Postal: Fach D 147, D-78457 Konstanz Phone: +49-7531-88-2204 Fax: +49-7531-88-4450 Web page: http://cofe.uni-konstanz.de More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Pricing Kernel ; Viable asset price processes ; Serial correlation ; Heteroskedasticity ; Stock market crashes ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports :
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