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The processing of non-anticipated information in financial markets: Analyzing the impact of surprises in the employment report Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Nikolaus Hautsch () (University of Copenhagen)
Dieter Hess () (University of Cologne)
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This paper delineates the simultaneous impact of non-anticipated information on mean and variance of the intraday return process by including appropriate variables accounting for the news flow into both the mean and the variance function. This allows us to differentiate between the consistent price reaction to surprising news and the traders’ uncertainty about the precise price impact of this information. Focussing on the US employment report, we find that headline information is almost instantaneously incorporated into T-bond futures prices. Nevertheless, large surprises, and ’bad’ news in particular, create considerable uncertainty. In contrast, if surprises in related headlines cross-validate each other, less room for differences of opinion is left, and hence volatility is decreased.
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Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number
02-06.
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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2002Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0206Contact details of provider: Postal: Fach D 147, D-78457 Konstanz Phone: +49-7531-88-2204 Fax: +49-7531-88-4450 Web page: http://cofe.uni-konstanz.de More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: high-frequency data ; information processing ; macroeconomic announcements ; Treasury bond futures ; trading process ; volatility ; Find related papers by JEL classification: E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
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