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On robust local polynomial estimation with long-memory errors

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Author Info

  • Jan Beran

    ()
    (Center of Finance and Econometrics)

  • Yuanhua Feng

    ()
    (Center of Finance and Econometrics)

  • Sucharita Gosh

    (Landscape Department, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL)

  • Philipp Sibbertsen

    (Fachbereich Statistik, Universität Dortmund)

Abstract

Prediction in time series models with a trend requires reliable estima- tion of the trend function at the right end of the observed series. Local polynomial smoothing is a suitable tool because boundary corrections are included implicitly. However, outliers may lead to unreliable estimates, if least squares regression is used. In this paper, local polynomial smoothing based on M-estimators are asymptotically equivalent to the least square solution, under the (ideal) Gaussian model. Outliers turn out to have a major effect on nonrobust bandwidht selection, in particular due to the change of the dependence structure.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 00-18.

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Length: 17 Pages
Date of creation: Jun 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0018

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References

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  1. Jan Beran & Yuanhua Feng, 2000. "Data-driven estimation of semiparametric fractional autoregressive models," CoFE Discussion Paper 00-16, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  2. Jan Beran & Yuanhua Feng, 2002. "Local Polynomial Fitting with Long-Memory, Short-Memory and Antipersistent Errors," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 291-311, June.
  3. Beran, Jan & Ghosh, Sucharita & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2000. "Nonparametric M-estimation with long-memory errors," Technical Reports 2000,36, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  4. Jan Beran, 1999. "SEMIFAR Models - A Semiparametric Framework for Modelling Trends, Long Range Dependence and Nonstationarity," CoFE Discussion Paper 99-16, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  5. Jan Beran & Dirk Ocker, 1999. "SEMIFAR Forecasts, with Applications to Foreign Exchange Rates," CoFE Discussion Paper 99-13, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  6. Giraitis, Liudas & Koul, Hira L. & Surgailis, Donatas, 1996. "Asymptotic normality of regression estimators with long memory errors," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 317-335, September.
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Cited by:
  1. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
  2. Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2001. "Long-memory versus structural breaks: An overview," Technical Reports 2001,28, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  3. Heni Boubaker & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "Semiparametric Generalized Long Memory Modelling of GCC Stock Market Returns: A Wavelet Approach," Working Papers 2014-066, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  4. Beran, Jan & Shumeyko, Yevgen, 2012. "Bootstrap testing for discontinuities under long-range dependence," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 322-347.
  5. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.

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