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Euroland's trade with the rest of the world: An SNA-based estimation

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  • Strauß, Hubert
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    Abstract

    The paper presents an estimation of Euroland's foreign trade with the rest of the world based on the exports and imports of the eleven member states of the European Monetary Union according to their Systems of National Accounts (SNA). In order to isolate the trade with the rest of the world from intra- European trade flows, the share of intra-trade is derived from customs statistics. Once the time series are constructed, real exports are regressed on indexes of industrial production abroad and the real external value of the ecu - both calculated with respect to the 20 most important trading partners - using an error correction model. The estimation results are used to forecast Euroland's exports in 1998 and 1999.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/46701/1/258359692.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 888.

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    Date of creation: 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:888

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    Related research

    Keywords: Ecu; Euro; error correction model; export forecast; intra-European trade; real external value;

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    References

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    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    2. Boss, Alfred & Döpke, Jörg & Fischer, Malte & Langfeldt, Enno & Schatz, Klaus-Werner & Scheide, Joachim, 1997. "Bundesrepublik Deutschland: Exportboom treibt Konjunktur," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1727, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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    Cited by:
    1. Hubert Strauß, 2001. "Euroland's Trade with Third Countries: An Estimation Based on NIPA Data," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 434-449.
    2. Boss, Alfred & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim & Schlie, Markus, 1999. "Für potentialorientierte Geldpolitik und Steuerwettbewerb in Euroland," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2265, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2000. "Euroland: kräftiger Aufschwung, zunehmende Stabilitätsrisiken," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2401, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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