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Banking and balance of payments crises: On possible causes of the twin crises

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  • Buch, Claudia M.
  • Heinrich, Ralph P.

Abstract

Banking and balance of payments crises often happen quite simultaneously. We show that the impact of an expected devaluation on the net worth of commercial banks with a short open foreign exchange position speeds up the timing of a balance of payments crisis. We employ an asymmetric information framework in which domestic commercial banks have to pay a positive risk premium on the international capital market which is determined by their net worth. Some stylized facts from selected transition and developing countries are presented in order to gauge the empirical relevance of the effects that we stress.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 848.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:848

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  1. Simon G. Gilchrist & Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The financial accelerator and the flight to quality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Speculative Attack and the External Constraint in a Maximizing Model of the Balance of Payments," NBER Working Papers 1437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Robert Dekle & Mahmood Pradhan, 1997. "Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in ASEAN Countries: Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 97/36, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Buch, Claudia M. & Heinrich, Ralph P., 1997. "Financing the transition: Risks and benefits of integrating into the international capital market," Kiel Working Papers 818, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Buiter, Willem H, 1986. "Borrowing to Defend the Exchange Rate and the Timing and Magnitude of Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 95, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  8. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
  9. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The “Overborrowing Syndrome”," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5, pages 7-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Miller, Victoria, 1996. "Speculative currency attacks with endogenously induced commercial bank crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 383-403, June.
  11. Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Buch, Claudia M. & Heinrich, Ralph P. & Spinanger, Dean & Engerer, Hella & Lodahl, Maria & Schrettl, Wolfram & Schrooten, Mechthild & Gabrisch, Hubert & Sigmund, Peter, 1998. "Die wirtschaftliche Lage Rußlands: Krise offenbart Fehler der Wirtschaftspolitik. Dreizehnter Bericht," Kiel Discussion Papers 330/331, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Gottschalk, Jan & Scheide, Joachim & Schlie, Markus & Strauß, Hubert, 1998. "Leicht gedämpfter Aufschwung in der Weltwirtschaft," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1759, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. Heike Joebges, 2000. "Ursachen für die Häufung von "Zwillingskrisen" in Schwellenländern," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 69(1), pages 38-52.

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