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Wechselkursunsicherheit und Außenhandel: Eine Analye der theoretischen Literatur

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  • Fischer, Malte
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    Abstract

    The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on international trade has been discussed controversially in economic policy and theory for a long time. The paper surveys the theoretical investigations on this topic. The early modeis which analyse the influence of exchange rate uncertainty on trade, conclude that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative impact on the trade volume and may induce changes of the prices of traded goods. These results, however, are due to the very restrictive and often unrealistic assumptions of the modeis. Thus, extensions of the basic modeis have been developed. By relaxing the assumptions in order to better reflect reality, these extended modeis show that under certain conditions exchange rate uncertainty has no or even a positive impact on international trade. Thus, it becomes evident that the results of the theoretical analysis to a great extent depend on the underlying assumptions of the modeis.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/46975/1/258048182.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 830.

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    Date of creation: 1997
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    Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:830

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    Related research

    Keywords: International Trade; Exchange Rates; Uncertainty;

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    1. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August.
    2. Richard K. Abrams, 1980. "International trade flows under flexible exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Mar, pages 3-10.
    3. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    4. Makin, John H, 1978. "Portfolio Theory and the Problem of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 517-34, May.
    5. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August.
    6. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1989. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 369, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
    8. Baron, David P, 1976. "Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the Pricing of Exports," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 425-38, September.
    9. Belanger, D. & Gutierrez, S. & Racette, D. & Raynauld, J., 1990. "The Impact Of Exchange Rate Variability On Trade Flows: Further Results On Sectoral U.S. Imports From Canada," Papers 90-08, ECOLE DES HAUTES ETUDES COMMERCIALES (H.E.C.), MONTREAL-.
    10. Martin J. Bailey & George S. Tavlas, 1988. "Trade and Investment under Floating Rates: The U.S. Experience," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 421-449, Fall.
    11. Willett:, Thomas D., 1986. "Exchange-rate volatility, international trade, and resource allocation: A perspective on recent research," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages S101-S112, March.
    12. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
    13. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December.
    14. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
    15. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    16. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
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