Financial stress and economic dynamics: an application to France
AbstractIn this paper, we develop a financial stress index for France that can be used as a real-time composite indicator for the state of financial stability in France. We take 17 financial variables from different market segments and extract a common stress component using a dynamic approximate factor model. We estimate the model with a combined maximum-likelihood and Expectation-Maximization algorithm allowing for mixed frequencies and an arbitrary pattern of missing data. Using a Markov-Switching Bayesian VAR model, we show that an episode of high financial stress is associated with significantly lower economic activity, whereas movements in the index in a low-stress regime do not incur significant changes in economic activity. Therefore, this index can be used in real time as an early warning signal of systemic risk in the French financial sector
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1834.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Financial stress index; Financial Systems; Recessions; Slowdowns; Financial Crises;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2013-03-23 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2013-03-23 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2011.
"Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
774, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2012.
- Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2012. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," NBER Working Papers 18420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2012. "Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand," Working Papers 12-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
- Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998.
"The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework,"
98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Claudio Borio, 2011. "Central banking post-crisis: What compass for uncharted waters?," BIS Working Papers 353, Bank for International Settlements.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Robert J. Tetlow, 2012. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue September, pages 369-398.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2007.
"The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011.
"Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "Maximum likelihood estimation of factor models on data sets with arbitrary pattern of missing data," Working Paper Series 1189, European Central Bank.
- Björn van Roye, 2011. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany and the Euro Area," Kiel Working Papers 1743, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Holló, Dániel & Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
- Christopher A. Sims & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006.
"Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models,"
2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
- Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
- Jonas Dovern & Björn van Roye, 2013. "International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR," Kiel Working Papers 1844, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Schrader, Klaus & Bencek, David & Laaser, Claus-Friedrich, 2013. "IfW-Krisencheck: Alles wieder gut in Griechenland?," Kiel Discussion Papers 522/523, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Dario Bonciani & Björn van Roye, 2013. "Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions, and economic activity," Kiel Working Papers 1843, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dieter Stribny).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.