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The reliability of macro-economic forecasts

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  • Spinanger, Dean
  • Walter, Norbert
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    Abstract

    In Germany since early 1981 a consensus has emerged predicting that an economic recovery is due for the second half of the year. This forecast of an upturn was put-forth for 1981 and for 1982. Despite these consensus, the forecasts proved to be wrong. Nonetheless in autumn 1982 the consensus forecast for 1983 again explicitly included a recovery starting mid-year, and again the forecast seems to be proving to be wrong. This time, however, the failure is not forecasting a recovery, only to find out its not there, but rather miscalculating in the other direction as the economic recovery has already been' on the move since the beginning of 1983.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/47038/1/056811675.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 181.

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    Date of creation: 1983
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    Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:181

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    1. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-83, June.
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