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Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability: Do It Now or Wait and See?

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  • Daiju Narita
  • Martin F. Quaas

Abstract

As growing attention is paid to climate change adaptation as an actual policy issue, the significant meaning of climate variability in adaptation decisions is beginning to be recognized. By using a real option framework, we shed light on how climate change and climate variability affect individuals’ (farmers’) investment decisions with regard to adaptation. As a plausible case in which the delay carries policy implications, we investigate farmers’ choices when adaptation involves the use of an open-access resource (water). The results show that uncoordinated farmers with a high risk aversion may under-adapt while farmers with a low risk aversion would over-adapt under the same conditions. Private adaptation should be supported or discouraged accordingly if farmers are not convinced about the possibilities of collective resource management in the long run

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File URL: http://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/adaptation-to-climate-change-and-climate-variability-do-it-now-or-wait-and-see/KWP%201809.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1809.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1809

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Related research

Keywords: Adaptation to climate change; climate variability; risk and uncertainty; real option; water; open-access resources;

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  1. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 109-116, August.
  2. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
  3. Peter Linquiti & Nicholas Vonortas, 2012. "The Value Of Flexibility In Adapting To Climate Change: A Real Options Analysis Of Investments In Coastal Defense," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1250008-1-1.
  4. Dixit Avinash & Rob Rafael, 1994. "Switching Costs and Sectoral Adjustments in General Equilibrium with Uninsured Risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 48-69, February.
  5. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Emission Abatement Versus Development As Strategies To Reduce Vulnerability To Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-12, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2002.
  6. Gouel, Christophe & Jean, Sebastien, 2012. "Optimal food price stabilization in a small open developing country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5943, The World Bank.
  7. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
  8. Kelly C. de Bruin & Rob B. Dellink & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "AD-DICE: An Implementation of Adaptation in the DICE Mode," Working Papers 2007.51, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  9. Alexander Golub & Daiju Narita, 2011. "Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change: Alternative Analytical Approaches," Working Papers 2011.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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