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Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime

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  • Daniel J.A. Johansson
  • Paul L. Lucas
  • Matthias Weitzel
  • Erik O. Ahlgren
  • A.B. Bazaz
  • Wenying Chen
  • Michel G.J. den Elzen
  • Joydeep Ghosh
  • Qiao-Mei Liang
  • Sonja Peterson
  • Basanta K. Pradhan
  • Bas J. van Ruijven
  • P.R. Shukla
  • Detlef P. van Vuuren
  • Yi-Ming Wei

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling comparison project on how the 2°C climate target could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. The analysis uses a framework that harmonizes baseline developments and soft-links seven national and global models being either economy wide (CGE models) or energy system models. The analysis is based on a global greenhouse gas emission pathway that aims at a radiative forcing of 2.9 W/m2 in 2100 and with a policy regime based on convergence of per capita CO2 emissions with emissions trading. Economic and energy implications for China and India vary across models. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. Reliance on Coal without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is significantly reduced in most models, while CCS is a central abatement technology in energy system models, as is renewable and nuclear energy. Concerning economic impacts China bears in general a higher cost than India, as China benefits less from emissions trading. Costs are also affected by changes in fossil fuel prices, currency depreciation from capital inflow from carbon trading and timing of emission reductions

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File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/multi-model-analyses-of-the-economic-and-energy-implications-for-china-and-india-in-a-post-kyoto-climate-regime/KWP%201808.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1808.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1808

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Keywords: Climate policy; China; India;

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References

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  1. Kretschmer, Bettina & Narita, Daiju & Peterson, Sonja, 2009. "The economic effects of the EU biofuel target," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) 32984, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Hoekstra, Rutger & van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M., 2003. "Comparing structural decomposition analysis and index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 39-64, January.
  3. Gernot Klepper & Sonja Peterson & Katrin Springer, 2003. "DART97: A Description of the Multi-regional, Multi-sectoral Trade Model for the Analysis of Climate Policies," Kiel Working Papers 1149, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Shukla, Priyadarshi R. & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, 2012. "Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S487-S495.
  5. Yasuko Kameyama, 2004. "The Future Climate Regime: A Regional Comparison of Proposals," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 307-326, December.
  6. Barun Deb Pal & Sanjib Pohit & Joyashree Roy, 2012. "Social Accounting Matrix For India," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 77-99, August.
  7. Liang, Qiao-Mei & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2012. "Distributional impacts of taxing carbon in China: Results from the CEEPA model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 545-551.
  8. Fisher-Vanden, K. A. & Shukla, P. R. & Edmonds, J. A. & Kim, S. H. & Pitcher, H. M., 1997. "Carbon taxes and India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 289-325, July.
  9. Chen, Wenying & Wu, Zongxin & He, Jiankun & Gao, Pengfei & Xu, Shaofeng, 2007. "Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model," Energy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 59-72.
  10. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Weitzel, Matthias & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Peterson, Sonja & Narita, Daiju, 2012. "Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 116-134.
  11. Liang, Qiao-Mei & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Carbon taxation policy in China: How to protect energy- and trade-intensive sectors?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 311-333.
  12. Andries Hof & Michel Elzen & Detlef Vuuren, 2009. "Environmental effectiveness and economic consequences of fragmented versus universal regimes: what can we learn from model studies?," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 39-62, February.
  13. Chen, Wenying & Li, Hualin & Wu, Zongxin, 2010. "Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer: Application of the Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7106-7120, November.
  14. Gunnar Luderer & Enrica DeCian & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Marian Leimbach & Henri Waisman & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "On the regional distribution of mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime," Climatic Change, Springer, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 59-78, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Weitzel, Matthias & Ghosh, Joydeep & Peterson, Sonja & Pradhan, Basanta, 2013. "Effects of international climate policy for India: Evidence from a national and global CGE model," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79771, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying, 2013. "Trends and development of steel demand in China: A bottom–up analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 407-415.

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