Carbon Price Dynamics – Evidence from Phase II of the European Emission Trading Scheme
AbstractIn this paper we empirically investigate potential determinants of allowance (EUA) price dynamics in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) during Phase II. In contrast to previous papers, we analyze a significantly longer time series, place particular emphasis on the importance of price variable selection, and include an extensive data of renewable energy feed-in in Europe. We show (i) that results are extremely sensitive to choosing different price series of potential determinants, such as coal and gas prices, (ii) that EUA price dynamics are only marginally influenced by renewable energy provision in Europe, and iii) that EUA prices currently do not reflect marginal abatement costs across Europe. We conclude that the expectation of a more mature allowance market in Phase II cannot be confirmed
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1804.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Carbon emission trading; EU ETS; Carbon price influence factors; Fuel switching;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2012-12-06 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2012-12-06 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-EUR-2012-12-06 (Microeconomic European Issues)
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