Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Christopher Reicher

Abstract

In this paper, I estimate a series of long run reallocative shocks to sectoral employment using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth for the United States from 1960 through 2011. Reallocative shocks (which primarily measure construction and technology busts) have little effect on the natural rate of unemployment or on long run productivity, but there is mild evidence that they are recessionary. A broad class of theoretical models suggests that the contractionary effect of a reallocative shock should come from the direct aggregate effect of the underlying shock and not from human capital mismatch. Looking at the period of the Great Recession, reallocation has had no detectable effect on the natural rate of unemployment and can count for a 0.5% rise in cyclical unemployment from 2007 through the end of 2009 and 0.3% through the beginning of 2011

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/the-aggregate-effects-of-long-run-sectoral-reallocation/the-aggregate-effects-of-long-run-sectoral-reallocation
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1720.

as in new window
Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1720

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 85853
Email:
Web page: http://www.ifw-kiel.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Mismatch; sectoral shifts; reallocation; natural rate; unemployment; Great Recession; stochastic volatility;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Can sectoral reallocation explain the jobless recovery?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 36-39.
  2. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 1996. "Macroeconomic effects of employment reallocation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 87-116, June.
  3. Phelan, Christopher & Trejos, Alberto, 2000. "The aggregate effects of sectoral reallocations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 249-268, April.
  4. Loungani, Prakash & Rush, Mark & Tave, William, 1990. "Stock market dispersion and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 367-388, June.
  5. Mills, Terence C & Pelloni, Gianluigi & Zervoyianni, Athina, 1995. "Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States: Further Tests of the Sectoral-Shifts Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 294-304, May.
  6. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  7. Abraham, Katharine G. & Katz, Lawrence F., 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Scholarly Articles 3442781, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Kambourov, Gueorgui & Manovskii, Iourii, 2004. "Rising Occupational and Industry Mobility in the United States: 1968-1993," IZA Discussion Papers 1110, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Prescott, Edward C., 1974. "Equilibrium search and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 188-209, February.
  10. Frank R. Kleibergen & Henk Hoek, 2000. "Bayesian Analysis of ARMA Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-027/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Rissman, Ellen R., 1993. "Wage growth and sectoral shifts : Phillips curve redux," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 395-416, June.
  12. repec:dgr:uvatin:2000027 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2014. "Labor-Market Polarization Over the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1720. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dieter Stribny).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.