Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Identification of a Core-Periphery Structure Among Participants of a Business Climate Survey

Contents:

Author Info

  • Thomas Lux
  • Ulrich Stolzenburg

Abstract

Processes of social opinion formation might be dominated by a set of highly influential agents acting as ‘opinion leaders’. Here we explore whether such a perspective could shed light on the dynamics of a well known economic sentiment index. To this end, we hypothesize that the respondents of the survey under investigation form a core-periphery network, and we identify those agents that define the core (in a discrete setting) or the proximity of each agent to the core (in a continuous setting). As it turns out, there is significant correlation between the so identified cores of different survey questions. Both the discrete and the continuous cores allow an almost perfect replication of the original series with a reduced data set of core members or weighted entries according to core proximity. Using a monthly time series on industrial production in Germany, we also compared experts’ predictions with the real economic development. The core members identified in the discrete setting showed significantly better prediction capabilities than those agents assigned to the periphery of the network

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/identification-of-a-core-periphery-structure-among-participants-of-a-business-climate-survey/KWP_1659_Identification%20of%20a%20Core-Periphery%20Structure.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1659.

as in new window
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1659

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 85853
Email:
Web page: http://www.ifw-kiel.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Business climate; network topology; economic expectations;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dieter Stribny).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.