The agricultural and the democratic transitions. Causality and the Roundup model
AbstractLong-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition. Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1521.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Long-run growth; transitions; causality and spuriousness;
Other versions of this item:
- Erich Gundlach & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The agricultural and the democratic transitions - Causality and the Roundup model," Economics Working Papers, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus 2009-06, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
- P5 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems
- Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2009-06-17 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2009-06-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2009-06-17 (Development)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005.
"Income and Democracy,"
NBER Working Papers
11205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olsson, Ola & Hibbs, Douglas Jr., 2005.
"Biogeography and long-run economic development,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 909-938, May.
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