The agricultural and the democratic transitions. Causality and the Roundup model
AbstractLong-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition. Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1521.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Long-run growth; transitions; causality and spuriousness;
Other versions of this item:
- Erich Gundlach & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The agricultural and the democratic transitions - Causality and the Roundup model," Economics Working Papers, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus 2009-06, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
- P5 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems
- Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2009-06-17 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2009-06-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2009-06-17 (Development)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Yared, Pierre, 2005.
"Income and Democracy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
5273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2008. "Income and Democracy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 808-42, June.
- Olsson, Ola & Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2000.
"Biogeography and Long-Run Economic Development,"
Working Papers in Economics, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics
26, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 11 Aug 2000.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dieter Stribny).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.