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National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises

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Author Info
Nils Jannsen
Abstract

Housing crises usually go hand in hand with a long lasting recession and a considerable loss in output. We first re-examine the effects of a housing crises on the business cycle based on historical crises. Then we estimate the international spill-over-effects if several huge industrial countries face a housing crisis simultaneously. While the economic impact of the housing crisis in the United States, from a historical perspective, should have bottomed out at the end of 2008 and the business cycle pattern differed significantly from that in a typical crisis, house prices in Great Britain, Spain and France just started to drop at the end of 2007. If we assume that a typical housing crisis occurs in all of these three countries, international transmission effects then would lead to significant losses of GDP growth in several other countries, notably in Europe

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File URL: http://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/national-and-international-business-cycle-effects-of-housing-crises-1/kwp-1510
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1510.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1510

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Related research
Keywords: Housing Crisis; Business Cycle; International Transmission; Global VAR;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Dees, S. & Holly, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0661, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Carsten Detken & Frank Smets, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-24.


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