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Explaining shifts in the unemployment rate with productivity slowdowns and accelerations: a co-breaking approach

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Author Info
Sven Schreiber
Abstract

We investigate the controversial issue whether unemployment is related to productivity growth in the long run, using U.S. data in a framework of infrequent mean shifts. Tests find (endogenously dated) shifts around 1974, 1986, and 1996, system techniques indicate that the shifts are common features, and the implied long-run link between the two variables is negative. Therefore the secular decline of unemployment since the mid 1990s indeed stemmed from higher average productivity growth. The initial and final regimes are essentially equal, thus supporting theories that explain the productivity slowdown by a slow adoption process of IT with associated learning costs

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1505.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1505

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Related research
Keywords: productivity slowdown; growth; NAIRU level; common shifts;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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