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The Evolution of Inflation and Unemployment: Explaining the Roaring Nineties

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  • Marika Karanassou
  • Hector Sala
  • Dennis J. Snower

Abstract

This paper argues that there is a nonzero inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the long-run due to frictional growth, a phenomenon that encapsulates the interplay of nominal staggering and money growth. The existence of a downward-sloping long-run Phillips curve suggests the development of a holistic framework that can jointly explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment. Hence, we estimate an interactive dynamics model for the US that includes wage-price setting and labour market equations. We then evaluate the inflation-unemployment tradeoff and assess the impact of productivity, money growth, budget deficit, and trade deficit on the unemployment and inflation trajectories during the nineties.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1350.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1350

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Keywords: Inflation dynamics; unemployment dynamics; Phillips curve; roaring nineties;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," Discussion Papers 2008-26, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  2. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2006. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," Working Papers 573, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  3. Ahrens, Steffen & Snower, Dennis J., 2012. "Envy, Guilt, and the Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 6302, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2008. "Monetary Policy and European Unemployment," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp08002, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
  5. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Andrea Vaona, 2013. "Inflation gifts and endogenous growth through learning-by-doing," Working Papers 09/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  7. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2010. "The US inflation-unemployment trade-off revisited: New evidence for policy-making," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 758-777, November.
  8. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Nicht zu früh bremsen! - Der Einfluss der Geldpolitik auf die langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland und den USA-," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp09003, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.

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