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The Evolution of Inflation and Unemployment: Explaining the Roaring Nineties

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Author Info
Marika Karanassou
Hector Sala
Dennis J. Snower

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Abstract

This paper argues that there is a nonzero inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the long-run due to frictional growth, a phenomenon that encapsulates the interplay of nominal staggering and money growth. The existence of a downward-sloping long-run Phillips curve suggests the development of a holistic framework that can jointly explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment. Hence, we estimate an interactive dynamics model for the US that includes wage-price setting and labour market equations. We then evaluate the inflation-unemployment tradeoff and assess the impact of productivity, money growth, budget deficit, and trade deficit on the unemployment and inflation trajectories during the nineties.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1350.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1350

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation dynamics; unemployment dynamics; Phillips curve; roaring nineties;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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  33. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2006. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 2265, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Nicht zu früh bremsen! - Der Einfluss der Geldpolitik auf die langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland und den USA-," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp09003, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2008. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," Discussion Papers 2008-08, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," Discussion Papers 2008-26, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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