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Does Immigration Affect the Phillips Curve? Some Evidence for Spain

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Author Info
Samuel Bentolila
Juan J. Dolado
Juan F. Jimeno

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Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of the Phillips Curve (PC) for the Spanish economy since 1980. In particular, we focus on what has happened since the late 1990s. Since 1999 the unemployment rate has fallen by almost 7 percentage points, while inflation has remained relatively subdued around a plateau of 2%- 4%. Thus, the slope of the PC has become much flatter. We argue that this favorable evolution is largely due to the huge rise in the immigration rate, from 1% of the population in 1994 to 9.3% in 2006. We derive a New Keynesian Phillips curve accounting for the e¤ects of immigration, a variable which is found to shift the curve if preferences and bargaining power of immigrants and natives di¤er. We then estimate this curve for Spain since 1980 and find that while the fall in unemployment over the last 8 years comes along with an increase in inflation of 2.2 percentage points per year, the increase of the relative unemployment rate of immigrants vis-à-vis natives accounts for an ofsetting 0.9 percentage points drop in the inflation rate per year.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1333.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1333

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Related research
Keywords: Phillips curve; immigration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fernandez, Cristina & Ortega, Carolina, 2006. "Labour market assimilation of immigrants in Spain: employment at the expense of bad job-matches?," IESE Research Papers D/644, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2006. "Rethinking the Effects of Immigration on Wages," NBER Working Papers 12497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Costs," NBER Working Papers 6909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112. [Downloadable!]
  5. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  6. Silvia Fabiani & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Claudia Kwapil & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad Stokman, 2006. "What Firms' Surveys Tell Us about Price-Setting Behavior in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani, 2005. "Globalization and Equilibrium Inflation-Output Tradeoffs," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Raquel Carrasco & Juan Jimeno & A. Ortega, 2008. "The effect of immigration on the labor market performance of native-born workers: some evidence for Spain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 627-648, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 45-78. [Downloadable!]
  14. Juan J. Dolado & Pablo Vázquez & Varios Autores, 2008. "Ensayos sobre los efectos económicos de la inmigración en España," Economic Reports 01-08, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Juan J Dolado & Carlos Garcia--Serrano & Juan F. Jimeno, 2002. "Drawing Lessons From The Boom Of Temporary Jobs In Spain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(721), pages F270-F295, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Raquel Carrasco & Juan F. Jimeno & Ana Carolina Ortega, 2004. "The Effect Of Immigration On The Employment Opportunities Of Native-Born Workers: Some Evidence For Spain," Economics Working Papers we046122, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Axel Dreher, 2005. "Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a new Index of Globalization," TWI Research Paper Series 6, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
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  18. George J. Borjas, 2003. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1335-1374, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
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  23. Assaf Razin & Alon Binyamini, 2007. "Flattening of the Short-run Trade-off between Inflation and Domestic Activity: The Analytics of the Effects of Globalization," Kiel Working Papers 1363, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ordóñez, Javier & Jusélius, Katarina, 2009. "Balassa-Samuelson and Wage, Price and Unemployment Dynamics in the Spanish Transition to EMU Membership," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(4), pages 1-30. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ian Dew-Becker & Robert J. Gordon, 2008. "The Role of Labor Market Changes in the Slowdown of European Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 13840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Assaf Razin & Alon Binyamini, 2007. "Flattening of the Short-run Trade-off between Inflation and Domestic Activity: The Analytics of the Effects of Globalization," Kiel Working Papers 1363, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Assaf Razin & Alon Binyamini, 2007. "Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy: Outcome of Globalization?," NBER Working Papers 13280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Alon Binyamini & Assaf Razin, 2007. "Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy as an Equilibrium Outcome of Globalization," Working Papers 232007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Raquel Carrasco & Juan F. Jimeno & Ana Carolina Ortega, 2008. "The impact of immigration on the wage structure : Spain 1995-2002," Economics Working Papers we080603, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alon Binyamini & Assaf Razin, 2008. "Inflation-Output Tradeoff as Equilibrium Outcome of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 14379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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