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Pro-poor Growth in Bolivia: Accounting for External Shocks and Policy Reforms

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  • Jann Lay
  • Rainer Thiele
  • Manfred Wiebelt

Abstract

This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia’s ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario that roughly extrapolates the situation prevailing before the onset of the recent economic crisis; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Niño); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks have not only contributed to the economic crisis, but that they are also likely to impair Bolivia’s medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, their impact on growth would be large enough to slightly overcompensate the impact of the negative external shocks. The poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1231.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1231

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Keywords: Pro-poor Growth; CGE Analysis; Bolivia;

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References

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  1. Gemio, Luis Carlos & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "¿Existe espacio para políticas anti-shock en Bolivia?," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 1, pages 37-68, Septiembr.
  2. Jemio, Luis Carlos & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "¿Existe Espacio para Políticas Anti-Shocks en Bolivia? Lecciones de un Análisis basado en un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable," Documentos de trabajo 1/2003, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  3. Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002. "Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny," Research Department Publications 4301, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Eduardo Lora, 2001. "Structural Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Reformed and How to Measure It," Research Department Publications 4293, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  5. Rainer Thiele & Daniel Piazolo, 2003. "A Social Accounting Matrix for Bolivia Featuring Formal and Informal Activities," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 285-318.
  6. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 1999. "When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from the diverse experiences of India's states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2263, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Peter Nunnenkamp & Rainer Schweickert & Manfred Wiebelt, 2007. "Distributional Effects of FDI: How the Interaction of FDI and Economic Policy Affects Poor Households in Bolivia," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 25(4), pages 429-450, 07.
  2. Acharya, Sanjaya, 2010. "Potential impacts of the devaluation of Nepalese currency: A general equilibrium approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 413-436, December.
  3. Rainer Schweickert & Rainer Thiele & Manfred Wiebelt, 2005. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of Devaluation in a Dollarized Economy: A CGE Analysis for Bolivia," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 120, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.

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