Pro-poor Growth in Bolivia: Accounting for External Shocks and Policy Reforms
AbstractThis paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia’s ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario that roughly extrapolates the situation prevailing before the onset of the recent economic crisis; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Niño); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks have not only contributed to the economic crisis, but that they are also likely to impair Bolivia’s medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, their impact on growth would be large enough to slightly overcompensate the impact of the negative external shocks. The poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1231.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Pro-poor Growth; CGE Analysis; Bolivia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-11-22 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 1999. "When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from the diverse experiences of India's states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2263, The World Bank.
- Eduardo Lora, 2001.
"Structural reforms in Latin America: What has been reformed and how to measure it?,"
Research Department Publications
4287, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Eduardo Lora, 2001. "Structural Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Reformed and How to Measure It," Research Department Publications 4293, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002.
"Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny,"
Research Department Publications
4301, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002. "Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny," Research Department Publications 4303, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Rainer Thiele & Daniel Piazolo, 2003. "A Social Accounting Matrix for Bolivia Featuring Formal and Informal Activities," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 285-318.
- Gemio, Luis Carlos & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "¿Existe espacio para políticas anti-shock en Bolivia?," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 1, pages 37-68, Septiembr.
- Rainer Schweickert & Rainer Thiele & Manfred Wiebelt, 2005. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of Devaluation in a Dollarized Economy: A CGE Analysis for Bolivia," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 120, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
- Peter Nunnenkamp & Rainer Schweickert & Manfred Wiebelt, 2006.
"Distributional Effects of FDI: How the Interaction of FDI and Economic Policy Affects Poor Households in Bolivia,"
Kiel Working Papers
1281, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Peter Nunnenkamp & Rainer Schweickert & Manfred Wiebelt, 2007. "Distributional Effects of FDI: How the Interaction of FDI and Economic Policy Affects Poor Households in Bolivia," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 25(4), pages 429-450, 07.
- Nunnenkamp, Peter & Schweickert, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2006. "Distributional effects of FDI: How the interaction of FDI and economic policy affects poor households in Bolivia," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4251, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Nunnenkamp, Peter & Schweickert, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2006. "Distributional effects of FDI: How the interaction of FDI and economic policy affects poor households in Bolivia," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, GÃ¶ttingen 2007 35, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- Acharya, Sanjaya, 2010. "Potential impacts of the devaluation of Nepalese currency: A general equilibrium approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 413-436, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dieter Stribny).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.