Determinants of Business Cycles in Small Scale Macroeconomic Models: The German Case
AbstractWe identify measures of shocks to total factor productivity and preferences from two real business cycle models and subject them to Granger causality tests to see whether they can be considered exogenous to other plausible sources of the German business cycle. For the period 60.i to 89.iv no variable Granger causes the shock measures, and for the period 70.i to 01.iv, only M3 does. We attribute the latter result to the breaks in our time series associated with the German reunification in 1990 and the European Monetary Union in 1999. We, thus, find no evidence to reject the exogeneity of our shock measures. Our findings contrast with similar studies for other countries that question the exogeneity of either productivity or preference shocks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1158.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Real Business Cycles; Solow Residual; Granger Causality;
Other versions of this item:
- Alfred Maussner & Julius Spatz, 2006. "Determinants of business cycles in small scale macroeconomic models: the German case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 921-950, November.
- Alfred Maussner & Julius Spatz, 2001. "Determinants of Business Cycles in Small Scale Macroeconomic Models: The German Case," Discussion Paper Series 213, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
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