Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Macroeconomic Interval Forecasting: The Case of Assessing the Risk of Deflation in Germany

Contents:

Author Info

  • Dora Borbély
  • Carsten-Patrick Meier
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper proposes an approach for estimating the uncertainty associated with model-based macroeconomic forecasts. We argue that estimated forecast intervals should account for the uncertainty arising from selecting the specification of an empirical forecasting model from the sample data. To allow this uncertainty to be considered systematically, we formalize a model selection procedure that specifies the lag structure of a model and accounts for aberrant observations. The procedure can be used to bootstrap the complete model selection process when estimating forecast intervals. We apply the procedure to assess the risk of deflationary developments occurring in Germany over the next four years.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/macroeconomic-interval-forecasting-the-case-of-assessing-the-risk-of-deflation-in-germany/kap1153.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1153.

    as in new window
    Length: 17 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1153

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Hindenburgufer 66, D-24105 Kiel
    Phone: +49 431 8814-1
    Fax: +49 431 85853
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.ifw-kiel.de
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: model selection; forecasting prediction intervals; bootstrapping; deflation;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    3. Franses,Philip Hans, 1998. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521586412.
    4. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-52, April.
    5. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2001. "Effects of parameter estimation on prediction densities: a bootstrap approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 83-103.
    6. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    7. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    8. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423.
    9. Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1998. "Outlier Detection in Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 459-68, October.
    10. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 1996. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Krasker, William S. & Kuh, Edwin & Welsch, Roy E., 1983. "Estimation for dirty data and flawed models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 651-698 Elsevier.
    12. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "Discussion of 'Data mining reconsidered'," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 192-201.
    13. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    14. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-79, April.
    15. Clements, Michael P. & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-267.
    16. Pascual, Lorenzo & Ruiz, Esther & Romo, Juan, . "Effects of parameter estimation on prediction densities: A bootstrap approach," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/4724, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Benner, Joachim & Borbély, Dóra & Boss, Alfred & Kamps, Annette & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank & Scheide, Joachim & Schmidt, Rainer, 2003. "Deutschland erneut in der Rezession," Open Access publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy info:hdl:10419/3012, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    2. Benner, Joachim & Borbély, Dóra & Boss, Alfred & Kamps, Annette & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank & Scheide, Joachim & Schmidt, Rainer, 2003. "Deutschland: Stagnation hält vorerst an," Open Access publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy info:hdl:10419/2984, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Benner, Joachim & Borbély, Dóra & Boss, Alfred & Kamps, Annette & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank & Scheide, Joachim & Schmidt, Rainer, 2003. "Leichte Belebung der Konjunktur in Deutschland," Open Access publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy info:hdl:10419/3080, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1153

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dieter Stribny).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.