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Trade Effects of Monetary Integration in Large, Mature Economies: A Primer on the European Monetary Union

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Author Info
Lúcio Vinhas de Souza

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to estimate the trade gains arising from the constitution of a currency union for a set of economically large, developed nations who create a monetary union as a deliberate economic policy action: namely, for the members of the euro area. With a 1980-2001 sample, no consistent significant trade effects from the 1999 creation of EMU are found, using dummies for the 1999-2001 period. Treating EMU not as a single event but as a part of a long-term integration process, and representing it by a series of continuous cross-country interest differentials, the evidence seems to be stronger, but it does not seem to be conditional on any single, specific exchange rate arrangement.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1137.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1137

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Related research
Keywords: Currency Unions; EU; EMU; panel model; gravity equation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
    • Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 9072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    • Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2001. "The Endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria, intraindustry trade and EMU enlargement," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  6. J. Lopez-Cordova & Chris Meissner, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1003, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Baer, Werner & Cavalcanti, Tiago & Silva, Peri, 2002. "Economic integration without policy coordination: the case of Mercosur," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 269-291, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2001. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intraindustry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," LICOS Discussion Papers 10601, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, K.U.Leuven. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sekkat, K., 1998. "Exchange Rate Variability and EU Trade," European Economy - Economic Papers 127, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
  11. Silvana Tenreyro & Robert J. Barro, 2002. "Economic effects of currency unions," Working Papers 02-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Sapir, Andre & Sekkat, Khalid, 1995. "Exchange rate regimes and trade prices Does the EMS matter?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 75-94, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Egger, Peter, 2000. "A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Felix Chan Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli Laurent L. Pauwels, 2006. "Stability Tests for Heterogeneous Panel Data," HEI Working Papers 24-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Baldwin, Richard & Di Nino, Virginia, 2006. "Euros and Zeros: The Common Currency Effect on Trade in New Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 5973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-specific Factors," ESE Discussion Papers 105, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-24.

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