Exchange Rate Expectations Redux and Monetary Policy
AbstractThis paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium optimizing two-country model to analyze how the formation of exchange rate expectations shapes the effects of monetary policy shocks in open economies. The model implies that the short-run output effects of permanent monetary policy shocks diminish if 'noise traders' in the foreign exchange market form regressive exchange rate expectations. If the influence of these noise traders is strong enough, a permanent expansionary monetary policy shock can result in a temporary decline of the output in the country in which it takes place. The output effects of temporary monetary policy shocks are magnified when noise traders form regressive exchange rate expectations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1109.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: May 2002
Date of revision:
Monetary policy; Exchange rate expectations; Noise trading;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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