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Exchange Rate Expectations Redux and Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Christian Pierdzioch
Abstract

This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium optimizing two-country model to analyze how the formation of exchange rate expectations shapes the effects of monetary policy shocks in open economies. The model implies that the short-run output effects of permanent monetary policy shocks diminish if 'noise traders' in the foreign exchange market form regressive exchange rate expectations. If the influence of these noise traders is strong enough, a permanent expansionary monetary policy shock can result in a temporary decline of the output in the country in which it takes place. The output effects of temporary monetary policy shocks are magnified when noise traders form regressive exchange rate expectations.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1109.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1109

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy; Exchange rate expectations; Noise trading;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  1. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Exchange rate expectations and monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 231-244, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sergio Da Silva, 2001. "Chaotic Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 281-304, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Niehans, Jurg, 1975. "Some doubts about the efficacy of monetary policy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 275-281, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 8858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1986. "Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate: evidence from survey data," International Finance Discussion Papers 292, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Sutherland, Alan, 1996. " Financial Market Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 98(4), pages 521-39, December.
  13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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