Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of Aggregate Exports: Empirical Evidence for the United States, Canada, and Germany
Abstract
A shortcoming of most empirical studies on aggregate exports is their exclusive focus on the demand side. Moreover, the effect of globalization is often neglected leading to implausibly high income elasticities. This paper models export demand and supply simultaneously and incorporates a new proxy for globalization. Owing to the non-stationarity of the data, the vector error correction model is the appropriate econometric framework. Using the Johansen procedure, two cointegration relationships are found and identified as export supply and demand. Overidentifying restrictions derived from economic theory are tested. Finally, after checking for weak exogeneity, a parsimonious partial model is presented and the adjustment paths of the endogenous variables are discussed.Download Info
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1101.Length: 156 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1101
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Related research
Keywords: cointegration analysis; Johansen procedure; export demand and supply; trade elasticities;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
References
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- Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, September.
- Dolado, Juan José & Banerjee, Anindya & Mestre, Ricardo, . "Error-correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-equation Framework," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/3275, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
- Blough, Stephen R, 1992. "The Relationship between Power and Level for Generic Unit Root Tests in Finite Samples," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 295-308, July-Sept.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Shigeyuki, Hamori & Yoichi, Matsubayashi, 2009.
"Empirical Analysis of Export Demand Behavior of LDCs: Panel Cointegration Approach,"
MPRA Paper
17316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Shigeyuki Hamori & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2009. "Empirical analysis of export demand behavior of LDCs: Panel cointegration approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1990-1999.
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