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Macroeconomic Impacts of External Shocks and Anti-Shock Policies in Bolivia: A CGE Analysis

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  • Luis Carlos Jemio
  • Manfred Wiebelt

Abstract

Bolivia's mid-term growth prospects are promising but these prospects could be lost, due to social unrest and political instability, if the country does not solve its short-term economic problems, resulting from both external shocks and internal factors. Against this background, this paper analyzes whether the Bolivian economy has any possibility at all to apply anti-shock policies in order to cushion the short-term effects of shocks. For this purpose, a recursive-dynamic CGE model is described which includes both real and financial sectors and which captures the particular features that characterize the functioning of the Bolivian economy. The model is then used to evaluate the effects of external shocks and to test the effectiveness of different policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1100.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1100

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Related research

Keywords: Macroeconomic adjustment; CGE model; Bolivia;

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References

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  1. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Nina, Osvaldo, 2000. "The HIPC Initiative In Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 4/2000, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  2. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Faris, Robert, 2001. "Reducing Volatility due to Natural Gas Exports: Is the Answer a Stabilization Fund?," Documentos de trabajo 11/2001, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  3. Bourguinon, Francois & Branson, William H. & De Melo, Jaime, 1989. "Adjustment and income distribution : a counterfactual analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 215, The World Bank.
  4. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Meza, Mauricio, 2001. "The Natural Gas Sector in Bolivia: An Overview," Documentos de trabajo 1/2001, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
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Cited by:
  1. Martín Palmero Pantoja, 2014. "Un modelo SVAR para la economía Boliviana," Investigación & Desarrollo 0514, Universidad Privada Boliviana, revised Jan 2014.

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