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Geldpolitik und vorausschauende Taylor-Regeln � Theorie und Empirie am Beispiel der Deutschen Bundesbank

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  • Christophe Kamps
  • Christian Pierdzioch

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag wird aufgezeigt, dass sich die Geldpolitik der Deutschen Bundesbank im Zeitraum 1991 bis 1998 gut mit Hilfe einer so genannten vorausschauenden Taylor-Regel beschreiben lässt. Die Deutsche Bundesbank stabilisierte in den 90er Jahren sowohl die Inflation als auch die Konjunktur. Die Geldmenge beeinflusste das Verhalten der Zentralbank über ihre Eigenschaft als Frühindikator für die zukünftige Inflation. This paper uses the empirical framework for estimating forward looking monetary policy rules developed in Clarida, Galí and Gertler (1998, 2000) to study monetary policy in Germany in the period 1991 to 1998. The estimation results show that the Bundesbank stabilized both inflation and the output gap in the 1990s. The money aggregate M3 influenced the behavior of the German central bank through its property as a leading indicator for future inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1089.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1089

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Related research

Keywords: Geldpolitik; Taylor-Regel; Deutsche Bundesbank;

References

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  2. Svensson, Lars, 1999. "Does the P* Model provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," Seminar Papers, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies 671, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  3. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April.
  5. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  6. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33.
  7. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Treu, Johannes, 2010. "Der Taylor-Zins und die europäische Geldpolitik 1999 - 2009," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 03/2010, Ernst Moritz Arndt University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
  3. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
  4. Ansgar Belke & Wim Kösters & Martin Leschke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Back to the rules," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany 268/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  5. Belke, Ansgar & Polleit, Thorsten, 2006. "How the ECB and US Fed set interest rates," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 72, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

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