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The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro Area — A Simulation Experiment

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Author Info
Jan Gottschalk
Stéphanie Stolz

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Abstract

We examine the indicator property of the monetary indicator for inflation. Using a P*-model, Svensson shows theoretically in a recent paper that the relationship between these two variables is rather tenuous. The present study employs empirical evidence on the relations in his model to quantify its dynamics for the euro area. Moreover, we extend SvenssonÂ’s analysis by considering different shocks and monetary regimes. It becomes apparent that the system exhibits complicated dynamics and that for most shocks and policy regimes the monetary indicator is not a leading indicator of dangers to price stability in the medium term.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1057.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1057

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary; Targeting; Inflation; Targeting; Euro Area;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Alberto Cabrero & Juan L. Escrivá & Emilio Muñoz & Juan Peñalosa, 1998. "The Controllability of a Monetary Aggregate in EMU," Banco de España Working Papers 9817, Banco de España.
  2. C. Müller & E. Hahn, . "Money Demand in Europe: Evidence from the Past," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2000-35, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  3. Alberto Cabrero & Juan L. Escrivá & Emilio Muñoz & Juan Peñalosa, 1998. "The Controllability of a Monetary Aggregate in EMU," Banco de España Working Papers 9817, Banco de España.
  4. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2000. "A money demand system for Euro area M3," Working Paper Series 39, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Carmine Trecroci & Juan Luis Vega-Croissier, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 33, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jan Gottschalk & Felipe Martinez Rico & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2000. "Money as an Indicator in the Euro Zone," Kiel Working Papers 984, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 063, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. P.J.G. Vlaar & H. Schuberth, 1998. "Monetary transmission and controllability of money in Europe: a structural vector error correction approach," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 544, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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  12. McCallum, Bennett T, 1999. "Recent Developments in Monetary Policy Analysis: The Roles of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 171-98, July.
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  13. Joachim Scheide & Mathias Trabandt, 2000. "Predicting Inflation in Euroland — The Pstar Approach," Kiel Working Papers 1019, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  14. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2198, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1.
  17. Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Günter Coenen & Juan-Luis Vega, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 6, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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