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Sources of Euro Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: What Is Behind the Euro Weakness in 1999-2000?

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  • Jörg Döpke
  • Jan Gottschalk
  • Christophe Kamps

Abstract

This paper analyzes the factors underlying the weakness of the euro. For this purpose, the framework advocated by Clarida and Gali (1994) is used. Within this model, three structural shocks drive the dynamics of the endogenous variables: aggregate supply shocks, aggregate spending shocks, and monetary shocks. Applying a structural VAR to data for the eurozone and the U.S. suggests that supply shocks are the most important factor explaining real exchange rate fluctuations in the sample from 1980 to 2000. However, historical decompositions reveal that fluctuations since the introduction of the euro in 1999 have been predominantly driven by demand shocks.

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File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/sources-of-euro-real-exchange-rate-fluctuations-what-is-behind-the-euro-weakness-in-1999-2000/kap1050.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1050.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1050

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Keywords: Exchange rate; structural vector autoregression; EMU; USA;

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  1. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
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  3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
  4. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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  13. Carsten-Patrick Meier, 1999. "Predicting Real Exchange Rates from Real Interest Rate Differentials and Net Foreign Asset Stocks: Evidence for the Mark/Dollar Parity," Kiel Working Papers 962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  14. Clostermann, Jörg & Schnatz, Bernd, 2000. "The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate: synthetic fundamentals and a non-existing currency," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  15. Robert A. Mundell, 1962. "The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 70-79, March.
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