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Estimating the Aggregate Agricultural Supply Response: A Survey of Techniques and Results for Developing Countries

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  • Rainer Thiele

Abstract

For many low-income countries, the impact of structural reforms on economic growth and poverty alleviation crucially depends on the response of aggregate agricultural supply to changing incentives. Despite its policy relevance, the size of this parameter is still largely unknown. This paper discusses the different approaches which may be employed to quantify the agricultural supply response. It turns out that none of these approaches is likely to deliver unbiased estimates. While in cross-country regressions the problem of unobserved country characteristics cannot be fully eliminated, time-series estimations tend to suffer from the Lucas critique. Any comprehensive empirical analysis should thus rely on more than one technique in order to check the robustness of results.

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File URL: http://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/estimating-the-aggregate-agricultural-supply-response-a-survey-of-techniques-and-results-for-developing-countries/kap1016.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1016.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1016

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Related research

Keywords: agricultural supply response; cross-country regressions; Nerlove method; co-integration; dynamic general equilibrium analysis.;

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References

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  1. Schiff, Maurice & Montenegro, Claudio E, 1997. "Aggregate Agricultural Supply Response in Developing Countries: A Survey of Selected Issues," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 393-410, January.
  2. Kherallah, Mylène & Delgado, Christopher L. & Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z. & Minot, Nicholas. & Johnson, Michael., 2000. "The road half traveled," Food policy reports 10, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Kherallah, Mylène & Delgado, Christopher L. & Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z. & Minot, Nicholas & Johnson, Michael, 2000. "The road half traveled," Issue briefs 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Marc Nerlove, 1979. "The Dynamics of Supply: Retrospect and Prospect," Discussion Papers 394, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2000. "Sind die Anpassungsprogramme von IWF und Weltbank gescheitert? Eine Bilanz der Erfahrungen von zwei Jahrzehnten," Kiel Discussion Papers 357, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  5. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  6. Binswanger, Hans & Yang, Maw-Cheng & Bowers, Alan & Mundlak, Yair, 1987. "On the determinants of cross-country aggregate agricultural supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 111-131.
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Cited by:
  1. Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda & Abdulai, Awudu, 2012. "Supply Response of Export Crops in Zambia: The Case of Coffee," Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs 123556, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  2. Rainer Thiele, 2002. "Price Incentives, Non-Price Factors, and Agricultural Production in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cointegration Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1123, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Rainer Thiele, 2002. "The Bias Against Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Has It Survived 20 Years of Structural Adjustment Programs?," Kiel Working Papers 1102, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Olubode-Awosola, O.O. & Oyewumi, Olubukola Ayodeju & Jooste, Andre, 2006. "Vector error correction modelling of Nigerian agricultural supply response," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 45(4), December.

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