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Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustment: The Role of Oil Suppliers Valuation Effects and Interest Rate Changes

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Author Info

  • Christian M. Oberpriller

Abstract

The present paper extends the Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) framework of current account imbalances by the oil exporting countries as a fourth region. It sets the stage for a variety of analysis that can be conducted within a four-region-setting that accounts for the importance of OPEC as a major current account surplus provider in the process of narrowing global current account imbalances. We find that including the oil exporting countries as an additional region consisting of OPEC and Russia lowers the adjustment effects predicted by Obstfeld and Rogoff. Depending on different assumptions on how global imbalances might be eliminated, our model predicts a real dollar depreciation in the range of 29.9 to 52.6 percent.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers with number 442.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieasw:442

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Keywords: current account; exchange rates; global imbalances;

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References

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  1. Kenneth Rogoff & William Brainard & George Perry, . "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Working Paper 33687, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  2. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  3. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-208.
  5. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 11771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
  7. Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," IMF Working Papers 91/100, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1992. "Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Christian M. Oberpriller, 2007. "Exchange Rates and Global Imbalances: The Importance of Asset Valuation Effects and Interest Rate Changes," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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