GARCH Modeling of Robust Market Returns
AbstractDaily financial market returns (as log difference in closing prices) may be quite sensitive to operations with low trading volumes and big changes in prices frequently traded at market closing times. This paper proposes a more robust estimation of market, returns by providing a new indicator that accounts for the information content in prices and trading volumes: the volume weighted return. Then we estimate a GARCH (1,1) model for the IBEX-35 futures market that includes shocks arising from countries linked to the Spanish economy. Our empirical findings suggest that the new measure of market evolution provide more moderate estimates of the impact of the relevant news coming from abroad and thus, it might be relevant to assess the linkages of one market to other economies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers with number 440.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
volume weighted return; trading volumes; international transmission of news; GARCH;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-09-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2007-09-02 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FMK-2007-09-02 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Time-Varying World Market Integration,"
NBER Working Papers
4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000.
"Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, 04.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
" On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1994. "Endogenous Trading Volume and Momentum in Stock-Return Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 253-60, April.
- Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2001. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in the Stock Markets of Transition Economies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 73-84, January.
- Tkac, Paula A., 1999. "A Trading Volume Benchmark: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 89-114, March.
- Giampiero Gallo & Barbara Pacini, 2000. "The effects of trading activity on market volatility," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 163-175.
- Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "IMF-related news and emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1126-1142, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dieter Stribny).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.