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Is the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade More Pronounced in Latin America than in Asia?

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Author Info
Dieter Billen
Maria Melody Garcia
Nelli Khasanova

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Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on East and Southeast Asian and Latin American exports from 1980 to 2004 by using a gravity model and panel data. The results show that exchange rate volatility negatively affects exports in both continents. However, the impact of exchange rate volatility is more pronounced in Latin America than in Asia for the whole sample period 1980-2004 and in the sub-period 1980- 1996, but not in the sub-period 1997-2004. Moreover, the results also show that countries with relatively high tariffs are less vulnerable to exchange rate volatility than open economies. Finally, evidence reveals that exports from high-income countries are less affected by exchange rate volatility.

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File URL: http://www.ifw-kiel.de/ausbildung/asp/asp-wp/2006/aspwp434.pdf
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers with number 434.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:kie:kieasw:434

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  1. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Froot, Kenneth A. & Kim, Michael & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Law of One Price Over 700 Years," Working Papers 95-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Fitzsimons, E. & Hogan, V. & Neary, J.P., 1999. "Explaining the volume of North-South Trade in Ireland: a Gravity Model Approach," Papers 99/14, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
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  5. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1993. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 269-287, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Brada, Josef C & Mendez, Jose, 1988. "Exchange Rate Risk, Exchange Rate Regime and the Volume of International Trade," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 263-80.
  7. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Daria Taglioni, 2002. "Exchange Rate Volatility as a Barrier to Trade: New Methodologies and Recent Evidence," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 1Q-2Q, pages 227-259. [Downloadable!]
  9. Robert C. Feenstra & Jon D. Kendall, 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices," NBER Working Papers 3644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bini-Smaghi, Lorenzo, 1991. "Exchange Rate Variability and Trade: Why Is It So Difficult to Find Any Empirical Relationship?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 927-35, May.
  13. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 724, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  16. Belanger, D. & Gutierrez, S. & Racette, D. & Raynauld, J., 1990. "The Impact Of Exchange Rate Variability On Trade Flows: Further Results On Sectoral U.S. Imports From Canada," Papers 90-08, ECOLE DES HAUTES ETUDES COMMERCIALES (H.E.C.), MONTREAL-.
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  17. Lastrapes, William D. & Koray, Faik, 1990. "Exchange rate volatility and U.S. multilateral trade flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 341-362. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Review of Development Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 331-360, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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