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The Impact of Uncertainty on Monetary Policy Rules in the UK

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Author Info
Christopher Martin (Brunel University)
Costas Milas () (Keele University, Centre for Economic Research and School of Economic and Management Studies)

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Abstract

Although policymakers and commentators have repeatedly stressed the impact of uncertainty about the true state of the economy on the setting of interest rates, the academic literature has largely ignored this issue. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of how uncertainty about the true state of the economy affects optimal monetary policy rules and presents empirical evidence using data for the UK since the introduction of inflation targets in October 1992. We find that the impact of inflation on interest rates is smaller when inflation is more uncertain and larger when the output gap is more uncertain; we also find that the impact of the output gap is smaller when the output gap is more uncertain. We also find that uncertainty has reduced the volatility but has not affected the average value of interest rates.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Economic Research, Keele University in its series Keele Economics Research Papers with number KERP 2006/09.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2006/09

Note: This paper is a substantially revised and updated version of our paper "Uncertainty and UK Monetary Policy" (KERP 2005/11). We thank Virginie Boinet, Jerry Coakley, Denise Osborn, Theo Panagiotidis, Simon van Norden and seminar participants at Nuffield College, the 2004 Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Conference in Manchester and the RES 2006 conference in Nottingham for very useful comments and suggestions.
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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Keele, Keele, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG - United Kingdom
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Web page: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/cer/
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Postal: Centre for Economic Research, Research Institute for Public Policy and Management, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG - United Kingdom
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Web: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/cer/pubs_kerps.htm

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy; Uncertainty.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
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  26. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International Evidence on the Stability of the Optimizing IS Equation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 687-712, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sheila Dow & Matthias Klaes & Alberto Montagnoli, 2007. "Risk and Uncertainty in Central Bank Signals: An Analysis of MPC Minutes," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/05, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
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