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On the Design of Lottery Games

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  • Roger Hartley
  • Gauthier Lanot

Abstract

We describe a model of participation in lottery games designed to address the optimisation of tax revenue in state-sponsored lotteries. The model treats participants dynamically and examines a long-run equilibrium. A novel high frequency approximation is used to turn the problem into a static, state-contingent deterministic programming problem. We demonstrate that the solution of this problem has qualitatively plausible properties and then calibrate the model against the United Kingdom National Lottery (UKNL). The results suggest that the current design of the UKNL may not be maximising tax revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Hartley & Gauthier Lanot, 1999. "On the Design of Lottery Games," Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001) 99/05, Department of Economics, Keele University, revised Apr 2000.
    • Handle: RePEc:kee:keeldp:99/05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johson, J.E.V. & Shin, H.S., 1995. "A Violation of Dominance anf the Consumption Value of Gambling," Papers 106, University of Southampton - Department of Accounting and Management Science.
    2. Lisa Farrell & Edgar Morgenroth & Ian Walker, 1999. "A Time Series Analysis of U.K. Lottery Sales: Long and Short Run Price Elasticities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 513-526, November.
    3. Farrell, Lisa & Morgenroth, Edgar & Walker, Ian, 1999. "A Time Series Analysis of U.K. Lottery Sales: Long and Short Run Price Elasticities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 513-526, November.
    4. Scoggins, John F., 1995. "The Lotto and Expected Net Revenue," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 48(1), pages 61-70, March.
    5. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, January.
    6. Scoggins, John F., 1995. "The Lotto and Expected Net Revenue," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 48(1), pages 61-70, March.
    7. Farrell, Lisa, et al, 2000. "The Demand for Lotto: The Role of Conscious Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 228-241, April.
    8. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279-279.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hofer, Vera & Leitner, Johannes, 2011. "Should European gamblers play lotto in the USA?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 181-187, November.
    2. Orrin David Gulley, 2018. "The optimal structure of lotto games," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 156-161.
    3. Alejandro Díaz & Levi Pérez, 2021. "Setting The Odds Of Winning The Jackpot: On The Economics Of (Re) Designing Lottery Games," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 168-177, January.
    4. Chen, Shu-Heng & Chie, Bin-Tzong, 2008. "Lottery markets design, micro-structure, and macro-behavior: An ACE approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 463-480, August.
    5. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: An Annotated Bibliography," Working Papers 1110, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.

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